As the Penguins are well aware, there are no sure things in the NHL. But tonight’s game against the suddenly hapless Senators will be as close as they will get to one.
With the Sabres and Coyotes portion of the schedule out of their way, the Senators are the worst team — at least in terms of their 47 points — the Penguins will likely play the rest of the season. It’s a far cry from last May when these teams staged an epic seven-game Eastern Conference Final that was decided in a dramatic double overtime.
“I know it’s been a struggle for them this year but this is hard league and it’s hard to win,” Mike Sullivan said. “We have so much respect for their personneL, how good they are. I think they’re well coached and, as I said, they’re a hard team to play against. We expect this to be every bit as hard fought a battle as it’s been in the previous games that we’ve played against this team.”
Here are the Penguins’ three keys to victory (and no, showing up isn’t one of them):
1. Follow the money.
The Senators might be playing for little more than pride, but Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mike Hoffman and Derick Brassard are playing for quite a bit more. Those three have been among the most prominent names rumored to be on the move at the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh has been mentioned as a possible destination for Pageau, though Jim Rutherford seemed quite content with his top three centers when he spoke to me on Monday. Pageau said he puts the rumors out of his mind.
“Just try and not go on social media as much,” Pageau told me. “I guess when you’re team is not doing as well as you’re expecting, there’s always more rumor and that’s the business. It’s years after years with different players. It’s nothing I can control. I can only control what I can. Right now, it’s helping the Ottawa Senators to win.”
Brassard would be an excellent acquisition for the Penguins if only to not have to face him anymore in the postseason. The 30-year-old has played 24 career playoff games against Pittsburgh, scoring nine goals. But GM Pierre Dorion’s asking price for Brassard — reportedly a first-round pick, a top prospect and a third piece — is prohibitive. Besides that, Brassard has another year left on his deal next season with a $5 million cap hit.
Regardless, with two weeks before the deadline, these guys are highly motivated and playing for contracts. Stopping them and Guy Boucher’s trap will be paramount for the Penguins.
“They clog the neutral zone and make you drop pucks behind them and obviously they’re really good on the rush,” Jake Guentzel said after Tuesday’s morning skate. “We have to be ready for that.”
2. Limit 65.
Erik Karlsson is having a bad season, at least by his otherworldly standard.
The two-time Norris Trophy winner and four-time first-team All-Star is 10th among all defensemen with 36 points — five goals, 31 assists — and a brutal minus-26 rating, fourth-worst in the NHL. His 56 giveaways — still 14 fewer than Kris Letang — rank 19th
Saying all that, Karlsson is still an elite player and one who must be accounted for every time he steps on the ice. Three of his five goals have come on the power play.
Karlsson said that this trip to Pittsburgh brings back some mixed memories of last May 25.
“Obviously it was extremely disappointing to being so close and losing in overtime,” Karlsson said. “Again, that’s what happened. They were the better team, obviously, that’s why they won. Every credit to them, but at the same time, we were proud of ourselves and did a great job with everything we had. In the end, it’s a bittersweet one. But it’s something that we’re going to have to keep in our memory books. It’s not something w’ere focusing on right now.”
3. Get the power play back on track.
Patric Hornqvist might be the least-decorated member of the Penguins’ top-ranked power play, which is saying something. But his absence is proving that he might actually be the most valuable of the five-man unit. Since Hornqvist went down with a lower body injury on Feb. 2 against the Capitals, the power play which had been converting at a historic pace has gone dry. Over a four-game span, the Penguins are 0-for-10.
Enter the Senators, and the NHL’s 28th-ranked penalty-kill. Ottawa has surrendered 40 goals on 161 chances for a rate of 75.2 percent.
In the Penguins’ lone meeting with the Senators this season, Nov. 16 at the Canadian Tire Centre, the power play went 0 for 2.
Sullivan said that the problem for the power play of late has been a combination of things, namely the lack of Hornqvist and in zone entries. He said the coaching staff went over a few things with the players in meetings earlier Tuesday.
“We spoke to them about focusing on the details,” Sullivan said. “It’s the little things. It’s retrieving pucks in winning faceoffs, getting a net presence, it’s shooting the puck when the opportunity presents itself. We just have to simplify the game a little bit. Clean up our entires and we believe the power play will be back on track.”
