A month ago in Dallas, I topped the list of the Penguins' keys to victory against the Stars with two words: Tyler Seguin. And by evening's end, he'd score once in regulation, then again to seal the shootout.
So, no need to overthink this ...
1. Stop Seguin.
Not just because of his role in that 4-3 victory Feb. 9 at American Airlines Center, though it certainly was prominent:
Not just because of his 36 goals, 28 assists and 275 shots in 68 games, either, though the goals rank fifth in the NHL, the shots third behind only Alexander Ovechkin and Brent Burns.
But rather, because of all of that plus the fact that, Friday night in Dallas, he set up both of the Stars' goals to beat the Ducks, 2-1, while registering six shots and attempting six others. And that, going back a bit further, he's got a balanced seven goals and six assists over his past eight games.
He can beat a team any which way.
"You always have to account for him," Jamie Oleksiak, who began this season as Seguin's teammate, was telling me. "He's just so dangerous with the great shot, the passing, the vision ... everything."
Mike Sullivan's not a matchup coach, at least not to the extent that he'd assign specific lines to dog Seguin's No. 1 unit on which he's flanked by Devin Shore and Alexander Radulov. But it's highly likely Jacques Martin will work to ensure their top defense pairing of Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin share the rink with him.
2. Protect the stars.
Sounds like something that really shouldn't need to be suggested in the modern NHL, but unfortunately, Ken Hitchcock's anything but a modern coach. Unless one counts the Mesozoic era of hockey as modern.
That meeting in Dallas saw the Stars take shot after shot after shot at Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, unlike any opponent all season, and it wasn't an accident. That, along with unimaginative defensive schemes, has been Hitchcock's M.O. going back to the 1990s, and it was applied far too systematically that night for coincidence.
Sullivan claimed afterward to be unmoved by the approach -- "Teams have tried to do that to us since I've been here," he'd say -- but there was no small amount of displeasure voiced in the visitors' locker room to make up for that.
Bottom line: Ryan Reaves was in uniform for that one, and he's gone now. Oleksiak can't fend off all his old mates by himself. And, as the Penguins learned again Saturday in Toronto, nothing would be dumber than hoping the NHL's referees do their jobs.
This will take team toughness.
Including from Crosby and Malkin themselves.
3. Shoooooooooooot!
I don't write this in the same spirit that Joe Fan will shout it from the upper deck, but much more in the sense that the Stars don't concede much: Their 2.57 goals-against average ranks fourth in the NHL, their 29.8 shots-against average third, their 83.3 percent penalty-kill fourth.
Now, it's worth stressing that the Penguins carved plenty of skating room in the previous meeting, peppering Kari Lehtonen with 37 shots.
But then, it's also worth noting that Lehtonen's been borderline phenomenal away from Dallas.
I'm not big on home/road splits in any sport, for as often as they're cited. But the big Finn's been the NHL's very best goaltender on the road with a 1.82 goals-against average and .923 save percentage over 15 such starts. In the past six alone, those figures are 1.05 and .960.
Grip it. Rip it.
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