DETROIT -- "It's going to be a good team," Ivan Nova was assuring me a couple weeks ago in Bradenton, Fla. "We have some good players in here, and we're going to battle. We're going to battle hard. And we're going to keep getting better."
I believe him. The man speaks with the passion of a preacher, but he also speaks the possible truth.
This 132nd edition of the Pittsburgh Baseball Club, which will open the 2018 season Friday here at Comerica Park, with the steady rain Thursday having forced a postponement, comes with potential all across the diamond. There's a breakout or comeback candidate at every other position. Josh Bell. Starling Marte. Gregory Polanco. A couple of the newcomers in left fielder Corey Dickerson, third baseman Colin Moran and reliever Michael Feliz. Heck, Nova himself.
And maybe it'll all go ideally, across the board. Maybe they'll start out with a sweep of the these terrible Tigers, for whom 90 losses might be seen as the rosy scenario. Maybe that'll generate enough excitement to sell out the home opener at PNC Park. Maybe a little roll will go a long way, confidence will grow, and a surprising summer will take shape.
But to what end?
That's the question, if I'm being candid, that came to mind almost instantly after Nova spoke that day.
What's the end game?
What's the optimal outcome?
____________________
See, that's the real and resonating damage wrought by the winter of 2015-16, when the front office of Bob Nutting, Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington took a 98-win team and, whether through frugality or incompetence or both, broke it all by entering the following season with a rotation that included Jon Niese, Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong.
It was as indefensible as it was inexplicable. If they'd chosen to build off that success, they'd have been infinitely better off on every imaginable level. They'd have had a shot at the World Series, to hear the few remaining players tell it. They'd have sold out one of Major League Baseball's smallest ballparks mostly through season tickets. They'd have put themselves into an authoritative position entering talks for a new TV rights deal and new stadium naming rights, both of which are expiring soon.
They'd have been enormous successes on the baseball and financial fronts, all in harmony.
And never mind the similar benefits of keeping Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole into this season, for that matter.
But that's not who they are.
[caption id="attachment_595302" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Bob Nutting and Neal Huntington in Bradenton. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS[/caption]
If Nutting were walking to the bank to cash a $50 million check, he'd trip and fall bending forward for a nickel. It's all he knows. And for all the genuine good he did upon taking over the franchise in 2007, he's undone it all by prioritizing that first and foremost and, in turn, allowing Coonelly and Huntington to do as they please so long as they remember what's most important.
It all trickles down from there.
Coonelly sets the business tone with the same stubborn, lawyerly approach that's made it Larry David-level cringeworthy for him to speak publicly anymore, for fear of the inevitable fan backlash. To boot, he was principally responsible for the existing TV rights deal with AT&T SportsNet that's universally regarded as one of the worst in the sport. And he's involved in baseball matters, too, more than most seem to realize.
Huntington has made the most positive impact of the three, particularly through free agency in augmenting those 2013-15 teams, but the failure of him, Kyle Stark and Greg Smith to draft and develop talent internally -- the undisputed worst in the sport during their tenure -- have rendered most of that moot. Because when they've made a mistake through free agency or a trade, there's been no internal option to salvage it.
You know all that. Old news.
But here's what's pertinent now: They know it, too. Meaning the players, the coaching staff and everyone within. And the public, as well.
Never in my lifetime as a born-and-raised Pittsburgher have I witnessed the kind of apathy/anger that's taking place with this fan base. And the slash is appropriate, because it hovers somewhere in that eclectic middle. They're apathetic about the team and actual baseball issues on a day-to-day basis, but they're angry that a team they want to love clearly no longer cares at the highest tier.
What a time. Seriously.
And what makes it that much more miserable is that, even if it all goes ideally, as mentioned above, the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow will just be another dumpster-dive for the next Vogelsong. Because, while these guys might like winning -- and I have no doubt they do -- they don't have it atop the list. And that's not fixable. It just isn't. That's DNA.
That's a bridge to nowhere until it's replaced.
____________________
All that out of the way, necessary as it's become, I'm not of the common mindset these Pirates are about to embark on a disaster, at least not as currently constituted.
See, that's where predicting anything with this franchise, even the routine fun of picking a win total, has lost any meaning. Because at the first sight of trouble, Nutting, Coonelly and Huntington will have all the impetus they need to keep selling. They'll move Francisco Cervelli, their highest-paid player now at $10.5 million. They'll move Josh Harrison and his $10.25 million. They'll move Jordy Mercer and his $6.75 million before he hits free agency next year. They'll move veteran bench guys Sean Rodriguez and his $5.75 million, and David Freese and his $4.25 million. In addition to their salaries, all five of those gentlemen also aren't shy about making waves and speaking their minds about how this front office operates, and anyone's free to ask Neil Walker what that means.
So if I write now that I see this team as having a chance at hovering above .500 -- which I think it does -- it's laughingstock material within four months. Because hovering around .500 is the green light for the next phase of the selloff, which would, of course, take them miles below .500, since they aren't exactly shrewd with these veteran-for-prospect trades.
But this group, the one that'll take the field against Jordan Zimmerman and the Tigers, this group's got the potential to go ... well, either way.
[caption id="attachment_595306" align="aligncenter" width="640"]
Starling Marte gets a laugh out of his teammates in Bradenton. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS[/caption]
I like the lineup. It's not going to rip up the sod defensively -- for example, Dickerson has no business manning left field at PNC Park, as a scout told me -- but Dickerson's addition offers enough power to partially offset McCutchen's loss while solidifying what had been a glaring hole in the middle. Otherwise, Polanco and Cervelli can stay healthier. Marte can wise up. Moran can show that his spring singles rampage could come with pop. J-Hay can have yet another All-Star season. Adam Frazier can bat more often. There are some ifs, but it's hardly ominous.
"I think we all feel like this team will hit," Frazier told me after a three-hit afternoon this spring. "There's some hitting for average, some aggressiveness, some power. We've got a little bit of everything."
The bullpen doesn't bother me, either, certainly not the back end. Felipe Rivero, among the smartest acquisitions of Huntington's tenure, could be truly special. Feliz and George Kontos can handle the seventh and eighth innings. The rest is somewhat problematic, particularly handing Tyler Glasnow yet another scholarship, but complaining about long relievers makes for a short argument.
"What I like is that we have different looks, you know?" Rivero told me this spring. "We have guys coming at you with different angles, different velocity and then I come ..."
Yeah, with a very different velocity.
"Ha! That's right!"
It's the rotation that's outright worrisome.
Oh, there's potential there, too. But show me potential for a group of mostly younger starters, and I'll show you a team ERA in the high 4s. Especially in a Central Division that'll have the Cubs, Cardinals and now the Brewers loading their lineups. Nova's so much better than what he showed post-break last season, and getting into better shape -- it's real, that 15-pound loss -- should help him last longer. But beyond him, the Pirates have Jameson Taillon, who's got an ace-level arsenal but can't stay on the mound. They've got Trevor Williams, who's got a layman's arsenal that scouts are sure will eventually get exposed. They've got Chad Kuhl, who's got a hot head to match his fastball heat. And they've got Joe Musgrove, whose resume with the Astros -- as a starter, anyway -- makes him look like the second coming of Tyler Glasnow.
"We've got guys who can really throw," Cervelli was telling me. "We've got arms. We've got talent. Now, we've got to get them to pitch."
Sounds like uncertainty to me. It'll take so much going so right for this rotation to work out. It's possible, but not probable.
My first prediction: Anyone who didn't appreciate Cole while he was here sure will when he's gone.
My second prediction: The offense will be the strong suit, even without Cutch, in large part because Polanco and Marte get their dual act together.
My third prediction: The defense and the rotation will unravel a lot of that.
My home run prediction: None of it will matter, whichever way those play out, because those running the franchise function with another focus entirely.
Season record?
Go ask those guys already grabbing that plug.
To continue reading, log into your account:
