COLUMBUS, Ohio -- On paper, it doesn't get much closer than the Penguins and Blue Jackets.
Through 80 games this season the Metropolitan Division rivals are mirror images, sharing the same totals in points (96), wins (45), losses (29) and overtime losses (6). Even their goal differentials are remarkably similar with the Penguins at plus-17 and the Blue Jackets at plus-15.
However, the Penguins are the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions and are the superior team. That was evident in this year's season series where the Penguins are 3-0 and have outscored Columbus 13-8.
The Blue Jackets? They've qualified for postseason play just three times in their 17-year history and the last two times -- 2014 and '17 -- they have been eliminated by the Penguins in the first round.
That said, the Blue Jackets are the hotter team -- they are 13-1-1 in their last 15 -- and have a chance to make things a lot more difficult on the Penguins with a win tonight.
1. Home sweet home.
Basically, that's what tonight's game comes down to. With a win, coupled with a Devils loss to the Maple Leafs, the Penguins can clinch home ice advantage in the first round. If not, things start getting dicey, even the possibility that they could fall to a wildcard spot.
Make no mistake, the Penguins want to be at home as much as possible. They were 29-9-2 at PPG Paints Arena as opposed to 16-20-4 away from it. That is their first sub-.500 road record since 2005-06, Sidney Crosby's rookie season.
Granted the Penguins have won huge games on the road each of the previous two springs, including both Cup clinchers, but the path of least resistance is always preferable.
"We feed off our home crowd well, we take that energy, and we use it to our advantage," Bryan Rust told me. "There's also a certain, I guess, sense of comfort playing at home. Guys might have a bit more confidence. I don't know why that isn't there as consistently on the road, but we'd like to find that."
The Jackets are 26-12-2 at Nationwide, which figures to be rocking tonight. The Penguins are certainly treating this game as a de facto playoff game but they can't get carried away with the emotion in the building. The best way for the Penguins to take the crowd out is to score early on Sergei Bobrovsky, who has an underwhelming .891 save percentage and 3.47 GAA against the Penguins this season.
In the Feb. 18 game at Columbus, the Penguins scored three goals in the opening 11:29, including two from Riley Sheahan:
The Penguins are 32-9-5 when scoring first while Columbus is 15-19-1 when trailing by a 1-0 score.
2. Columbus' new Jackets.
If you hadn't heard, this will be the Penguins' first game against Ian Cole with his new team.
Since being dealt, Cole has taken on almost mythical proportions to a panicky Pittsburgh fanbase, but his willingness to block shots and play a physical game -- "the little things" as Rust said -- is obviously missed on the Penguins' back end.
In 18 games with the Blue Jackets, Cole has seven points (two goals, five assists) and is a plus-11, but his biggest contribution to his new team has been the intangibles he brings: His leadership and character.
The outgoing Cole is credited with loosening up a room that was getting tight. The Jackets were just 30-26-5 at the time of his arrival.
As the net-front presence, Patric Hornqvist figures to get reacquainted with his former teammate quite a bit.
"I’m probably going to spend a lot of time with him," the Swede said with a sadistic smile. "And I can't wait."
But Cole isn't the only addition that Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen -- the league's only European GM -- made at the deadline. The Blue Jackets have also received valuable contributions from former Penguins center Mark Letestu, acquired from Edmonton, and former 40-goal man Thomas Vanek, from Vancouver. Vanek has 14 points (seven goals) in 17 games with the Coats.
The addition of these role players has made Columbus a deeper, more experienced team that has won 15 of 19 since the deadline. The Blue Jackets will test the Penguins far more than they did in the previous three meetings this season.
"They're a good team, they're a skilled team that works hard," said Rust. "With the addition of those guys it just makes them deeper and makes them kind of a little bit more of a threat throughout their lineup and that's something we have to be aware of."
3. The Bread Man, man
The Blue Jackets aren't just deeper than in year's past, they also have Artemi Panarin. The 26-year-old is the high-end skill player that they haven't had since Rick Nash's glory days a decade ago.
The Penguins have seen firsthand this season how good Panarin is. The Bread Man has five points (four goals) in just three games against them this season.
"He's a very high-skilled player," Rust told me. "I would definitely put him in the difference-maker category. He's a guy who is really skilled with the puck. If he has the puck on his stick, you have to be aware of what he's doing plus be aware of where everyone else is because he can thread some passes too."
In Tuesday's 4-3 OT win over Detroit, Panarin scored his 27th goal of the season to give him 80 points, breaking Nash's team record.
How good is Panarin? He can dangle his dog. Take a look for yourself ...
Готовимся к игре против Эдмонтон. Getting ready for the game against @EdmontonOilers pic.twitter.com/Z8Tj7nGc0n
— Artemi Panarin (@9Artemi) March 27, 2018
Needless to say, the Penguins do not want Panarin to make them his, let's say, dog.
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