Thanks to a strange brew of injuries, underwhelming performances and real progress made by the man himself, we can legitimately ask a question that would have seemed absurd even a few months ago: Right now, is Steven Brault the Pirates’ best starting pitcher?
The lefty, once swapped from the Orioles to the Pirates as the player to be named in the Travis Snider trade, has mostly bounced between spot starter and long relief duty since breaking into the majors in 2016. And, frankly, he didn’t make much of a case for sticking in the rotation. But, as the 2019 season winds down, Brault has turned it on — and potentially solidified a spot in next year’s starting five with a more aggressive, fastball-heavy approach.
Brault logged 75.2 innings pitched as a starter from 2016-18, with middling results. He struck out just 6.4 batters per nine innings, walked 4.3 per nine and surrendered 1.2 homers per nine frames. His ERA was 4.76, and his peripheral stats painted an even uglier picture. Brault’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) — a more accurate reflection of a pitcher’s performance based on K’s, walks and homers allowed — was 5.07. Brault was a fringe major league starter, more or less.
He initially lost a competition with Jordan Lyles for the fifth starter’s spot this spring, but has shown significant improvement since being stretched out again. In 60 innings as a starting pitcher in 2019, Brault has boosted his K rate (8.4 per nine), modestly improved his control (3.9 BB/9) and done a better job of keeping the ball in the park (0.9 HR/9). His 4.15 FIP ranks second among current Pirates starters (Joe Musgrove is first, at 4.02) and is better than the 4.52 overall average for MLB starters this season.
Brault doesn’t exactly have a prototypical power pitcher’s frame, pitch arsenal or reputation. But that hasn’t stopped him from employing an “I dare you to hit it” approach — and succeeding.
Brault has thrown his four-seam fastball about 51 percent of the time as a starting pitcher this season. That’s up from about 46 percent of the time as a starter from 2016-18. While he nibbled with his four-seamer in years past, throwing about 55 percent of them within the strike zone as a starter from 2016-18 (according to MLB Statcast), he has challenged hitters in the zone about 61 percent of the time in 2019.
Compared to his forgettable stint as a starter from 2016-18, Brault is getting significantly better results with his four-seamer. He’s limiting hard contact, pumping fastballs to the upper portion of the zone and getting strikes by the bushel:
For comparison’s sake, the average opponent slugging percentage on four-seamers is .495 for starting pitchers this season.
On the surface, there’s nothing all that remarkable about Brault’s four-seamer. He’s throwing the pitch at an average of 91.8 mph, which is about the same as his starting stints from 2016-18 (92.2 mph). Brault’s spin rate on the pitch is only about 2,040 revolutions per minute, which is below the average of about 2,260 for MLB starting pitchers. Generally speaking, fastballs with higher spin rates are more effective. So, in terms of pure velocity and movement, it’s ordinary. But Brault does do a good job of getting extension toward home plate and hiding the ball from batters. The perceived velocity of his four-seamer (92.9) is more than a tick higher than his actual velocity. Perceived velocity is an MLB Statcast metric that takes into account a pitcher’s release point and extension toward home plate. If perceived velocity is higher than actual velocity, that means batters have less time to react to the pitch than the radar gun would suggest.
When Brault isn’t chucking high four-seam fastballs, he’s relying upon a 91 mph sinker (thrown about 16 percent of the time), low-80s slider (20 percent) and a mid-80s changeup (13 percent) as a starter. Those complementary pitches are proving to be effective, too. Brault has limited opponents to a .412 slugging percentage on the sinker (.511 MLB average for starters in 2019), .269 on the changeup (.400 average) and .250 on the slider (.395 average).
Brault still has some things to prove. Can he continue to succeed high in the zone without premium velocity, or will batters adjust to his new above-the-belt game plan? Can he tamp down on the walks? Can he handle a starter’s workload, considering his previous career high between the minors and majors was 155 innings pitched back in 2017? With his strong work this summer, Brault has earned the opportunity to answer those questions late this season and in 2020.
MORE PIRATES
• No thanks to you: There’s no disputing that the Pirates’ pitching has been horrendous during the 2019 season. But it’s also true that the fielders behind them aren’t doing them any favors. Collectively, the Pirates defense has been -30 runs worse than average, according to Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS measures a player’s defensive value compared to an average player at his position, while accounting for factors like range, throwing arm and double plays (for infielders). Pittsburgh ranks 24th in the majors in DRS, and ahead of only the Mets among NL teams. With should-be outs turning into hits and errors, Pirates pitchers have suffered. The team has a collective 5.01 ERA, and a 4.71 FIP. So, the Pirates pitching hasn’t been good, but it looks worse because of the team’s clunky fielding.
• Improved Archer: Has Chris Archer turned a corner? His early departure Tuesday because of an apparent shoulder injury clouds the picture, and we’ve been fooled before (see September of 2018), but the Rays ace turned Pirates pariah strung together some impressive starts in August. This month going into Tuesday’s start, Archer sported a 6.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.3 K/BB ratio from April-July), a .658 opponent OPS (.816 through July) and zero home runs allowed. In highly related news, Archer had not thrown a single sinker in August. Instead, he’d thrown four-seam fastballs (about 51 percent of the time), more sliders (36 percent) and the occasional changeup (11 percent). Archer ditched the sinker after batters incinerated it to the tune of a .795 slugging percentage in 2019. Now, we just have to hope he’s healthy.
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