For at least one glorious evening, Trevor Williams re-captured that second-half magic from 2018. Williams threw six scoreless innings versus the Cincinnati Reds on Aug. 24, limiting the Pirates’ division rival — and occasional pro wrestling opponent — to three hits. Despite his modest velocity, he pumped fastballs to the corners of the zone and induced feeble contact. He looked like the breakout pitcher who conjured up memories of Jake Arrieta circa 2015 while posting a 1.38 ERA after the All-Star break last season.
Unfortunately, Williams has rarely been in top form in 2019. His ERA has ballooned by more than two full runs (from 3.11 in ’18 to 5.35), and he has been throttled since returning from a side injury that shelved him for about a month. Pitchers with Williams’ stuff — low-90s heat, a decent slider, a show-me changeup — have to be surgical on the mound. And too often this season, his command has been off just enough to get crushed.
Williams’ strikeout and walk rates are virtually unchanged between 2018 and 2019. He whiffed 18 percent of batters last year, and 17.1 percent this season. He issued walks in 7.9 percent of plate appearances in ’18, and 6.7 percent in ’19. Williams doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s stingy with free passes. What has changed — and changed dramatically — is his home run rate. Williams surrendered a homer on 8 percent of fly balls hit against him last year, and 14.2 percent this season. The league average is 15.2 percent.
You could make a case that Williams got lucky on fly balls last year, and that has reversed this season. You could also say the same about his batting average on balls in play (which has climbed from .261 in ’18 to .303 in ’19) and his strand rate (76.6 percent of base runners left on last year, 67.7 percent this year). On the whole, pitchers have less direct control over home run per fly ball rate, BABIP, and strand rate. Williams was an outlier on all three last year, and he has regressed toward the average this year. His luck ran out.
That’s true, but there’s more at play here. Williams was exceptional at inducing weak contact in 2018, limiting batters to an average exit velocity (85.6 mph) that was about two ticks below the MLB average (87.5 mph). This year, batters are putting balls in play at exactly the league average exit velocity. Opponents are hitting Williams harder, and those higher-velocity balls in play are doing more damage. One of the main reasons is that Williams’ command has been off — particularly on his bread-and-butter four-seam fastball.
Williams throws his four-seamer about 53 percent of the time, at an average of 91.6 mph (according to MLB Statcast). It’s his primary weapon, but it’s not exactly drawing comparisons to Gerrit Cole or Noah Syndergaard’s gas. Pitchers with Williams’ kind of profile — particularly those who don’t have plus secondary pitches — typically need to avoid the heart of the strike zone and hit the corners to be effective. Last year, he did that reasonably well. And when he did leave one over the middle, opponents didn’t take full advantage. This season? Not so much.
In 2018, Williams threw about 23 percent of his four-seam fastballs to the horizontal middle of the strike zone, according to Statcast. This year, he’s tossing belt-high fastballs about 26 percent of the time (the league average is about 22 percent). Williams threw 20 percent of his four-seamers to the vertical middle of the zone last year — right around the league average — but that rate has increased to 23 percent in 2019.
So, Williams is leaving more four-seam fastballs over the heart of the plate. Remarkably, he didn’t get burned when he did that last season. But this year, batters are doing way more damage when Williams fails to hit the corners of the zone:
In 2018, opponents slugged a measly .338 against his four-seamer. That was well below the .493 MLB average for starting pitchers. This year, with Williams displaying inconsistent command, batters are slugging .538. They have already taken Williams deep 11 times on a four-seamer, after doing so just seven times in 2018.
Last year, Williams was both extremely lucky and good. This year, his pitch execution has suffered and opponents aren’t letting him off the hook when he serves up a middle-of-the-plate pitch.
Williams’ Aug. 24 start versus the Reds offers a blueprint of what he needs to do to succeed. He threw his four-seamer nearly half of the time (46 percent of total pitches). Just 5 percent of those four-seamers were thrown to the absolute middle of the zone — meaning both belt-high, and in middle of that plate. That’s half of his rate with the pitch for the 2019 season. Williams displayed sharp four-seam fastball command, and zeros followed.
With the Pirates suffering so many injuries and the farm system lacking close-to-the-majors prospects who can make an impact (aside from rotation regular Mitch Keller), Williams has an opportunity to finish the season strong and prove he deserves to be part of the team’s starting five in 2020. He’s not the guy who went on an historic tear during the second half of 2018, but he’s also probably not the guy who got completely shelled over the past couple of months. If he’s back to full health and has indeed rediscovered his fastball command, Williams is at least a passable starter on a team that has often lacked even that performance level this year.
MORE PIRATES
• Striking early: In the batter’s box, Starling Marte is not a patient man. The Pirates’ center fielder has swung at 40.4 percent of first pitches, which is well north of the 28.2 percent league average (according to MLB Statcast). And when he takes a cut at the first pitch, he’s lethal. Marte has launched seven first-pitch home runs this season and boasts a .677 slugging percentage in those situations. He’s in the top 15 in first-pitch homers and slugging percentage among all MLB hitters. For comparison’s sake, the average big leaguer slugs .633 on the first pitch. Marte’s career first-pitch slugging percentage is .636.
• Launching point: Few players have taken advantage of the injuries and under-performance that have plagued the 2019 Pirates more than Jose Osuna. During his first two years in the majors, Osuna’s park- and league-adjusted batting line was 23 percent worse than the overall MLB average. This year, Osuna’s adjusted batting line has rocketed to 35 percent above average in limited (but growing) playing time. It’s too early to say whether the 26-year-old, who compiled a good-not-great resume at Triple-A (career .842 OPS), has made a true breakthrough. But his swing this season is more conducive to power hitting. Osuna’s launch angle — the vertical angle at which the ball leaves the bat after contact — has climbed from about 8.5 degrees in 2017-18 to 11 degrees this year. To put that in context, MLB Statcast notes that balls hit with a launch angle under 10 degrees are likely ground balls. Balls in the 10-25 degree range are line drives, and the 25-50 range are fly balls. With a more uppercut swing, Osuna has decreased his ground ball rate from 51 percent in 2017-18 to 45 percent in 2019. His batted balls, and perhaps his MLB career, have achieved lift off.
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