When a franchise is careening toward a 100-plus loss season, there are no shortage of deficiencies at both the major- and minor-league level. The Pirates’ busted rotation — and seemingly busted pitching development pipeline — justifiably get most of the attention. But there’s also a serious concern with the other end of the battery.
One year after boasting one of the most productive catching tandems in the game, the Pirates are patching together a time-share at the top level with Jacob Stallings and Elias Diaz. Neither one of those guys necessarily profiles as an everyday option — and if you’re looking for reinforcements on the farm, it could be a while.
This club is in the midst of a catching crisis.
In 2018, the Pirates’ catching situation was the envy of most teams. Francisco Cervelli arguably had the best year of his career, and Diaz broke out. Led by those two, the Pirates had the fourth-most Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at the position, with 4.2. WAR measures overall hitting, base running and defensive value compared to the kind of production that you would expect from a fringe major-league player. Even if Cervelli dealt with injury problems or departed via free agency, the team could turn to Diaz as the long-term option moving forward.
Or so they thought. Cervelli once again dealt with concussion problems in 2019 and was subsequently ineffective before being recently granted his release. He’s now an Atlanta Brave. Diaz, meanwhile, has been perhaps the most disappointing player on a team with several candidates. Stallings has finally cracked the majors for more than a cameo, but at 29 looks more like a quality backup than a guy you want making 100-plus starts in a season. Overall, the Pirates have received -0.6 WAR from the catching position this year. That’s fourth-worst among all teams.
Let’s start with Stallings, who is the only member of this season’s catching troika to post a positive WAR this season (+0.9). The longtime minor-leaguer has quickly become a favorite of pitchers, and understandably so. According to Baseball Prospectus, Stallings has been +3 runs better than an average defensive catcher at framing pitches — in other words, getting favorable calls on borderline pitches around the strike zone. He has also been +2 runs above average in blocking pitches, and +1 run above average in controlling the running game. With +6 fielding runs overall, Stallings ranks 15th among all catchers despite his part-time status. He has thrown out half of runners who have attempted a steal, way above the 27 percent MLB average in 2019. He brings legitimate value behind the plate.
At the plate, Stallings’ production is more modest. Although he hasn’t gotten the bat knocked out of his hands, his park- and league-adjusted batting line is 15 percent below the overall MLB average. That’s adequate lumber by the standards of catchers (MLB backstops have an adjusted line that is 15 percent below average this season). Considering his age and that he’s got a career .725 On-Base-Plus Slugging percentage in more than 850+ Triple-A plate appearances, what you see is probably what you get with Stallings.
Diaz, by contrast, has never been known for his defense. Although Stallings has saved about +6 runs above average with his deft pitch-framing, pitch-blocking and arm, Diaz ranks dead last among MLB catchers with -14 fielding runs (per Baseball Prospectus). Diaz has been about average in pitch-blocking and in throwing out runners (25 percent caught-stealing rate), but horrendous in pitch-framing.
You might be able to tolerate that shaky glove work if Diaz continued to hit like he did in 2018, when his adjusted batting line was 14 percent above the overall MLB average. That ranked sixth among all catchers with 250+ plate appearances. Instead, Diaz’s power surge from ’18 has vanished. His adjusted batting line is 36 percent below average, which ranks 28th out of 30 backstops who have 250+ plate appearances in 2019. A year after hitting 10 homers, he has gone deep just once. His slugging percentage versus breaking pitches his been nearly cut in half (.530 in 2018, .278 in 2019, according to MLB Statcast). Overall, Diaz has been worth -1.2 WAR — second-worst among all big league catchers. Last year, he was at +1.8 WAR as a part-time starter. Instead of strengthening his status as the long-term option, Diaz has performed like a Triple-A-caliber player this year.
The Pirates are fond of projections. They may have different evaluations of Stallings and Diaz, but one of the most well-known and vetted projection systems — ZiPS — doesn’t forecast starter-worthy production from either player next year. ZiPS forecasts player performance based on multiyear production at the major- and minor-league level and historical aging patterns. According to ZiPS, Stallings and Diaz project to struggle offensively. And, even with what looks like a very kind defensive forecast for Diaz, he falls short of starting-level production over the course of a season.
For comparison’s sake, +2 WAR is considered a general baseline for league-average production for a starter. Neither one of these guys figures to reach that level next year. Don’t look for minor league reinforcements, either. According to MLB Pipeline, there isn’t a single catcher among the club’s top 30 prospects.
So, entering the offseason, the Pirates must make a decision: Hope for the best from Stallings and Diaz — and probably get lackluster results — or explore the free agent and trade market (Milwaukee’s Yasmani Grandal could be the big fish on the market, if he declines his portion of a $16 million mutual option for 2020). Whoever’s running this franchise this winter shouldn’t stand pat at catcher.
MORE PIRATES
• Crick’s meltdown: Kyle Crick‘s 2019 season is a prime example of just how volatile relief pitching performance can be. One year after establishing himself as a critical high-leverage option for manager Clint Hurdle, Crick has gone from a fireman to an arsonist. His walk rate (3.4 per nine innings pitched in 2018, 6.3 in 2019) and home run rate (0.5 in ’18, 1.7 in ’19) have skyrocketed, and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a modified ERA metric, has climbed from 3.14 to 5.73. FIP estimates a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed. Perhaps the best way to show how much Crick’s struggles have harmed the Pirates is by comparing his Win Probability Added (WPA) between 2018 and 2019. WPA measures the number of wins that a pitcher adds or subtracts from his team’s total, while adjusting for the importance of the game situation. If a pitcher shuts down a late-inning rally in a tight game, his WPA gets a big boost. Conversely, if he blows the game, his WPA gets dented pretty badly. The more high-pressure the situation, the bigger the change in a pitcher’s WPA. Last year, Crick had +1.4 WPA (meaning he added 1.4 more wins compared to an average pitcher, when adjusting for game situations). This year, he has a -1.7 WPA. Crick has the 12th-worst WPA among all MLB relievers this season. When the game’s on the line, he’s getting crushed.
• One wicked slider: Mitch Keller‘s early-career work is drawing some comparisons to Tyler Glasnow — and not the reformed, dominant version seen this spring in Tampa Bay. But here’s a piece of good news. As a top-rated prospect, Keller was often lauded for his big-breaking, 12-to-6 curveball. But in the majors, he has flashed another potentially plus breaking pitch: Keller has thrown a high-80s slider nearly a quarter of the time (23.5 percent of his total pitches), and the results have been deadly. The 23-year-old righty has limited hitters to a .321 slugging percentage off his slider (.394 average for MLB starting pitchers) and has generated a whiff 53.5 percent of the time that batters have swung at the pitch, according to MLB Statcast. When opponents actually manage to make contact against Keller’s slider, they’re putting the pitch in play with an average exit velocity of just 81.3 mph (the third-lowest exit velocity for starters who have thrown at least 50 sliders this season). It has been a bumpy ride for Keller overall, but the top-line stuff is there.
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