With JuJu Smith-Schuster out, Duck Hodges in, and the Steelers’ playoff hopes on the line, James Washington picked the ideal time to have a breakout game in Week 13 vs. the Browns.
The second-year wideout hauled in all four passes thrown his way, good for a career-best 111 yards. And they weren’t just catches — they were explosive, improbable and spectacular. He made a contested, toe-tapping catch. He snagged a deep TD pass, despite getting tackled to the ground before the ball arrived. And he burned a former top-five NFL pick at corner in Denzel Ward for good measure. Washington was everything the Steelers hoped for when they selected him out of Oklahoma State with the 60th overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Washington’s big game and strong 2019 season are even more remarkable when you consider the depths to which he had fallen last year. After an historically bad rookie year, Washington has the look of another shrewd wide receiver draft pick for the Steelers beyond the first round.
Plainly spoken, Washington had a brutal first year.
In the new millennium, there have been 148 wide receivers selected within the first two rounds of the NFL draft. Washington ranked 84th among that cohort as a rookie in yards per reception (13.6), 119th in receiving yards (217), 123rd in receptions (16) and 130th in catch rate (42.1 percent). While some hoped that Washington could make a JuJu-like impact as a rookie, he instead tumbled down the depth chart while drawing the ire of Ben Roethlisberger. Entering 2019, Washington looked like the fourth man behind Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief and Diontae Johnson.
Instead, with Smith-Schuster ailing, Washington has become the No. 1 target. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards (578) and is on pace to finish the 2019 season with about 800. Despite the QB carousel, he has boosted his catch rate (55.6 percent) and has emerged as one of the league's big-play threats:
Washington is making more happen after the ball is in his hands, increasing his average yards after the catch from 3.3 as a rookie to 5.0. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he's averaging about one more yard after the catch per reception than an average NFL receiver based on factors like the passing distance, game situation and the location of the nearest defenders on the field.
You can make the case that on a per-play basis, Washington has been one of the league's better receivers this season.
Football Outsiders keeps track of a stat called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). DVOA compares the value that a receiver creates per play based on factors like the game situation and the quality of competition. Washington has been about 13.5 percent better than an average NFL receiver per play, which ranks 17th in the league among those targeted with at least 48 passes this season. That's the best on the team, and it's not even close (Smith-Schuster sits at -5.5 percent worse than average per play, and Johnson is -12.7 per play). For comparison's sake, Washington was 25 percent below average in DVOA as a rookie.
Fans, analysts and the Steelers' front office all seemed down on Washington entering 2019, and understandably so. But, amid unimaginable injuries and roster churn on offense, he has emerged as a game-breaking--and potentially season-saving--weapon.
MORE STEELERS
• He didn’t kill them: Mike Tomlin set a pretty low bar for Devlin Hodges leading up to the Browns rematch, and it’s safe to say the Duck cleared it. The undrafted, undersized, previously-waived FCS quarterback completed 14 of 21 passes for 212 yards versus Cleveland, with a TD and an interception apiece. Hodges wasn’t exactly quick in getting rid of the ball, with an average time to throw of 3.1 seconds according to NFL Next Gen Stats (fourth-longest among QBs in Week 13), but the offensive line protected him well (just one sack allowed). While previous starter Mason Rudolph mainly stuck to short passes and screens, Hodges aired it out more often. The average completed air yards on his passes was eight, ranking third among QBs in Week 13. On throws of at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, he was four of six for 133 yards and one touchdown.
• Hargrave’s gonna get paid: Javon Hargrave is playing a more prominent role in the team’s scheme, taking 58 percent of the Steelers’ defensive snaps in 2019 after being on the field 44 percent of the time last year. That uptick in playing time is paying dividends for Pittsburgh now, and will surely help Hargrave’s bank account as he negotiates his next contract. While his sack total is in line with his 2018 output (four so far in 2019, 6.5 in 2018), he has already surpassed his 2018 totals in tackles for loss (seven in '19, six in '18) and quarterback pressures (12 in '19, 10 in '18) and will soon do so in tackles (45 in '19, 49 in '18). Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Hargrave ranks 11th among all defensive tackles in sacks (10.5), 16th in tackles for loss (13) and 23rd in QB hits (13). Cam Heyward and Stephon Tuitt (before his injury) get the headlines, but don't underestimate the havoc Hargrave creates, too.
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