The Steelers' secondary has turned into a no fly zone for opponents in 2019.
Backed by a ferocious pass rush and bolstered by savvy free-agent signings (plus a dose of Cleveland stupidity), trades and even draft picks, the group features a collection of rangy, ballhawking defensive backs capable of changing games. The sack leaders get plenty of love, so let's take a closer look this week at the guys blanketing receivers and forcing picks in the back end.
A year ago, the Steelers' pass defense was middling. They collectively allowed a 95.2 passer rating, which ranked 21st in the NFL and second-worst in the AFC North (ahead of only the Bengals). Pittsburgh gave up an average of 231.1 passing yards per game (tenth in the league), intercepted just eight passes (28th) and they were beat deep for passing plays of 20-plus yards an average of 3.3 times per game (16th). Not all of the blame fell on the secondary--the Steelers had some linebackers who struggled in coverage, too--but the defensive backs didn't stand out.
This year? The Steelers are surrendering a passer rating of just 81.2, which is fifth-best in the league behind only New England (59.7), Baltimore (78.1), Buffalo (79.9) and San Francisco (80.2). They're giving up 209.8 passing yards per game (fifth-best), they have snagged 18 interceptions (second-best) and they have allowed an average of 2.8 plays per game of 20+ yards (eighth-best). Again, some of that improvement can be credited to a better pass rush and rangier linebackers. But some of the Steelers' DBs have been among the best at their position in terms of passer rating allowed when targeted in coverage, according to Pro Football Reference:
It has been a comparatively rough year for Mike Hilton (87.3 passer rating allowed) and especially Terrell Edmunds (124.3), but Fitzpatrick and the team's top three corners have been superb.
Fitzpatrick, of course, has been a turnover machine with five interceptions (tied for most in the NFL) and two fumble recoveries. The trade acquisition has lowered his passer rating allowed from an already-impressive 64.6 as a rookie with Miami in 2018. Sutton was torched last year in limited playing time (122.3 passer rating allowed), but he has usurped Hilton as the team's slot corner in some situations. Cleveland castoff Haden is still going strong at 30 years old, lowering his passer rating from 72.0 last year and ranking tied for second with four INTs. He might be older for the speed-based position that he plays, but there's a reason the Steelers felt comfortable giving him a contract extension. Some fans balked when the Steelers signed former Chief Nelson to a three-year free agent deal worth potentially $25.5 million, but he's still just 26 and has also shown improvement (72.6 passer rating allowed last year).
It absolutely helps to have maniac pass rushers like T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree coming off the edge, and to have linemen like Cam Heyward and Javon Hargrave dominating up front. QBs have less time to throw, and receivers have less time to get open. But let's give some well-deserved credit to a secondary that's more than holding up its end of the bargain. We're a long way from the days of watching Artie Burns get beat deep and then benched.
MORE STEELERS
• Have a day, Diontae: Diontae Johnson was in a rut entering the Arizona game, having committed a few costly mistakes the previous week versus the Browns and barely being part of the passing game in recent weeks. But the team's third-round pick out of Toledo might have been the best player on the field against the Cardinals. He returned a punt return 85 yards for a touchdown, bounced off cornerback Patrick Peterson like he was Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl and hauled in a touchdown in the corner of the end zone. Johnson finished the Cardinals game with 163 all-purpose yards (60 receiving, 16 rushing, 87 on punt returns), which is the fourth-most in a single game for a rookie in 2019. Only New Orleans' Deonte Harris (213 all-purpose yards versus San Francisco on December 8), Philadelphia's Miles Sanders (180 versus Detroit on September 22) and Tenessee's A.J. Brown (166 at Oakland on December 8) racked up more all-purpose yardage as a rookie this year. The last Steelers rookie to have more all-purpose yards was Jaylen Samuels, who had 172 versus the Patriots on December 16, 2018.
• Longest shot: For the second week in a row, the Duck oudueled a former number one overall pick. Devlin Hodges completed 16 out of 19 passes against the Cardinals for 152 yards, with one touchdown and no picks. His passer rating (117.5) was sixth-best among QBs who threw at least 15 passes in Week 14, and easily topped the 67.2 rating posted by Arizona's Kyler Murray. The former FCS-level star from Samford has only appeared in five games and started three, but it's fair to say we've never seen anything quite like the Duck in 2019. During the post-merger era (1970-present), 17 undrafted quarterbacks have attempted at least 80 passes during their rookie season. Hodges has the highest passer rating (103.2) of them all, beating out the likes of Todd Bouman (98.3 in 2001), Nick Mullens (90.8 in 2018), Dieter Brock (82.0 in 1985), Jeff Garcia (77.9 in 1999) and Warren Moon (76.9 in 1984). And some of those undrafted players, including Canadian Football League star Moon, played in other leagues before debuting in the NFL. Historically speaking, you just don't see Hodges' combination of obscure background and outstanding rookie performance.
PENGUINS
• Long-distance danger: After a stellar start to the 2019-20 season (.923 save percentage in October), Matt Murray has scuffled since then (a combined .870 save percentage in November-December). His adjusted goals allowed rate is 14 percent worse than the league average, after he was ten percent better than average last year. Oddly enough, Murray is struggling the most with shots that look pretty innocuous. He has the second-worst low-danger save rate (.943) among all NHL goalies who have logged at least 500 minutes of even-strength time, according to the Corsica Hockey website. The only net minder who has been worse on low-danger shots is Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky (.916). Low-danger shots are those with the worst odds of becoming a goal based on shot location, shot type and odd-man rush situations. On a related note, long-distance shots have been a problem for Murray. The average distance of the goals that he has allowed is 27.4 feet from the net, per Natural Stat Trick. That's the longest average goal distance allowed by all NHL goalies with 500+ minutes of even-strength time. Whether his reflexes have been a millisecond slow, or he has been the victim of some tough screens and tip-ins, there have been a number of improbable goals against Murray this year.
• Losing Dumoulin: With Brian Dumoulin (left ankle surgery) out for potentially two months, the Penguins didn't just lose Kris Letang's partner--they lost one of the league's best defensemen from a puck possession standpoint. Dumoulin helps tilt the ice in his team's favor like few others. Over the past two seasons, the Penguins have taken +4.5 percent more of the game's total shots when Dumoulin is skating at even strength compared to when he's on the bench. That's the eighth-highest positive differential among all NHL defensemen with at least 75 games played since the start of the 2018-19 season, behind only Letang, Erik Karlsson, Thomas Chabot, Vince Dunn, Kevin Shattenkirk, John Klingberg, and Dougie Hamilton. That's not just a product of skating with Letang, either. Sure, he's better with the ultra-talented Letang, but the Penguins have still generated more scoring chances and goals than their opponents when Dumoulin is on the ice even when he had a different defensive partner (54 percent of scoring chances when Dumoulin skates without Letang, and 51 percent of goals). They're going to miss him.
• Reflecting on Phil: Phil Kessel made his return to Pittsburgh this past week, with the now Arizona Coyote getting the kind of raucous reception worthy of a player who was an integral part of two Stanley Cup-winning teams. Just where does Kessel rank in the pantheon of all-time Penguins scoring talents? With 0.92 points per game during his four seasons in Pittsburgh, Kessel ranks 13th in franchise history among players who appeared in at least 300 games. The only players to produce more points per game than Kessel are Mario Lemieux (1.88 per game), Jaromir Jagr (1.34), Paul Coffey (1.33), Sidney Crosby (1.28), Evgeni Malkin (1.18), Ron Francis (1.15), Kevin Stevens (1.06), Syl Apps (1.01), Mark Recchi (0.99), Alex Kovalev (0.97), Mike Bullard (0.94) and Lowell MacDonald (0.93). If you're keeping score at home, that list includes four Hall of Famers (Lemieux, Coffey, Francis, Recchi) and at least three future Hall of Famers (Jagr, Crosby, Malkin).
PIRATES
• Cooperstown (in)justice: Once again, the Cobra has been denied entry to Cooperstown. Dave Parker was not elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by its Modern Era Committee, a collection of Hall of Fame players plus owners, front office executives and media members who vetted candidates who played between 1970-1987. Parker clubbed 339 career home runs, made seven All-Star teams, took home three Gold Gloves and was selected as the 1978 NL MVP. Does his resume measure up to the typical Hall of Famer? According to Baseball-Reference, Parker compiled 40.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) during his career. WAR measures a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a fringe major leaguer. The average Hall of Fame position player has compiled about 67 career WAR, according to Baseball Reference. On the other hand, Parker's candidacy wasn't all that much different than controversial 2019 selection Harold Baines (38.7 WAR). If Baines is a Hall of Famer, it's harder to keep guys like Parker on the outside.
• Stallings over Diaz: The Pirates still figure to shop for a number one catcher via trade or free agency. But new GM Ben Cherington clearly preferred what Jacob Stallings brings to the table than Elias Diaz, who tumbled from the team's possible long-term catcher to non-tendered with a year's time. That decision came down to defense. In 2019, Stallings saved the Pirates about +14 runs compared to an average defensive catcher, according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) metric. FRAA takes into account a catcher's ability to expand the strike zone for his pitchers through pitch framing, as well has his prowess in blocking pitches and controlling the running game. Stallings had the seventh-highest FRAA among all major league catchers despite appearing in just 71 games in 2019. Diaz, meanwhile, cost the Pirates -11 runs compared to an average defensive catcher in 101 games. He ranked 108th among 113 catchers in FRAA. Stallings is an asset to the Pirates' pitching staff, while Diaz was a liability.
• Cool under pressure: The existence--or lack thereof--of a "clutch" gene is one of the most debated topics in sports. Do some players have an innate ability to perform better when the stakes are highest? Or are performances in these high-pressure situations just a fluke? We won't answer that question fully in this space, but either way, we can say this: Bryan Reynolds was awesome when the game was on the line in 2019. Reynolds had the fifth-highest on-base-plus slugging percentage (OPS) among all qualified major leaguers in "high-leverage" situations, according to Fangraphs. High-leverage at-bats are those that swing the outcome of games the most--think late innings, close score, maybe runners in scoring position. Reynolds had a 1.202 OPS in high-leverage spots, which ranked behind only Anthony Rendon (1.296), Carlos Santana (1.237) Jose Iglesias (1.214) and Nolan Arenado (1.206).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Kicking conundrum: If you're getting the impression that NFL kickers are missing the uprights more often these days, you're on to something. League-wide, kickers are making just 80.5 percent of field goal attempts in 2019. That's down from 84.7 percent in 2018, and it's the lowest success rate since 2003 (79.2 percent). The biggest downturns have come on long-distance kicks. Kickers are making 69.2 percent of field goal attempts from 40-49 yards, down from 76.3 percent in 2018. On kicks of 50+ yards, they're connecting 56.3 percent of the time (63.8 percent in 2018).
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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