Between now and 3 p.m. today, Jim Rutherford's holding the fate of the current Penguins, as well as the future of the franchise, in his Hall of Fame hands.
No hype.
Think about it: He's overseeing an outfit that, while oozing chemistry and -- when healthy -- elite speed and skill, can almost never count on those two words between the double-dashes. They just can't. And no matter what Rutherford knows about the statuses of Jake Guentzel and Brian Dumoulin, in particular, he can't know whether Guentzel could make any more than a cameo appearance in the coming Stanley Cup playoffs.
So, does he decide now to make a move to further bolster a still-meh collection of scoring wingers?
Should he hope like heck Guentzel can come back in the second round, the conference final, even later?
Would he worry not only about his injured defensemen but also one who's been as robustly ineffective as Justin Schultz of late, with zero points to show for his past 20 games?
Does he dare think about forfeit draft picks from further into the future, given that he's already sent out his top two from 2020?
Or about trading Samuel Poulin and/or Nathan Legaré, their top two picks last summer and the only top-shelf talents at any level of the system?
Or can he somehow justify not doing a thing, aware and adamant that the team to win with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is right now?
I mean, my goodness.
A few of my own thoughts to share:
• It's so, so hard to form the most important thought of all without knowing more regarding Guentzel.
I've heard that his injury was more akin to a car accident than a hockey issue, with how hard his shoulder slammed into those end boards. I've also heard the damage done was significant. But we all know that the Penguins' medical team issued a timetable of 4-6 months, and the lower end of that falls within the playoffs. And I can add to this that no one on the team has written off a return in that time.
Being blunt, it's no coincidence that the team's general play initially began to dip in mid-January, soon after his departure. There are no routine replacements for 40-goal scorers, never mind all else he brings, especially in concert with Crosby.
• Which obviously leads into the next: Is Jason Zucker enough?
Not enough to replace Guentzel but, in fairness, no one was expecting that, nor should they. In further fairness, Zucker's already shown at least glimpses of working well with Crosby, with the potential for much more if he hears his coaches' recent admonitions to keep his feet moving more often. He did so over this past weekend.
Still, he won't be enough with the rest of the wingers not scoring enough: Bryan Rust's in his first slump, with a goal over the past 10 games. Jared McCann's got none in his past 15. Patric Hornqvist had a big one Sunday in D.C., but that was his fourth over the past 16 games. Dominik Kahun's got 10 goals in 50 games despite tons of top-six time. And Dominik Simon, for all else he does well, won't ever be a finisher.
The greatest positional gap between the Penguins and the top three teams in the East -- Lightning, Bruins, Capitals -- is on the wings. No question about that.
If Guentzel's bound to return, then Zucker seems adequate. If not ...
• Yeah, I'd take another winger.
But who? And more important, at what cost?
I see Chris Kreider as the prize among the pure rentals, and it's more plausible than ever that the Rangers will move after contract talks stalemated Sunday night. Our Taylor Haase has heard rumblings that Rutherford and the Rangers have discussed Kreider.
But there are three issues within this thought:
1. Kreider's got a rep through the hockey world as being ... not exactly the smoothest when it comes to team/player relations, to find a kind way to word what I've heard about him repeatedly over the years. Mike Sullivan did coach Kreider in New York in his years, though, so he'd have more of a compass on this than most.
2. This locker-room culture the Penguins have forged can't be touched. And won't be touched. This is one reason all concerned glowed about how Zucker would 'fit' with this group. If they think the same stuff about Kreider that I cited above, he won't be a consideration.
3. He'll be very expensive. Unlike Zucker, who's got two more years on his contract, he'll be gone at season's end, but he also brings more to the rink than Zucker. Which means we're probably talking about another first-rounder and another top prospect. Or a couple top prospects.
I'll restate that this is the prize, setting aside all other circumstances: He's 28, he's one of the five fastest players on the planet, he's 6 feet 3, he's averaged 25 goals per season in the NHL, and he's got sandpaper to spare. There aren't many of those who become available.
• I've heard two younger names, too, though these aren't -- and wouldn't be -- confirmed by Rutherford: Max Domi's on the block in Montreal, and he's only 24. He's hugely talented, almost as gritty as his dad Tie, and it wouldn't hurt his future stability that Tie and Mario Lemieux remain best buds. Andreas Athanasiou's on the block in Detroit, too, and he's another young one at 25. Super-fast and nearly as skilled.
In either case, because of their ages, the trading of picks/prospects would feel more palatable, less like mortgaging the future. They could conceivably stick around.
• Swinging way to the other extreme, one older name I heard, much to my surprise, was that of Eric Staal.
He's 35, but he's a 1,000-point guy who's popped 17 goals and 25 assists this winter for the Wild. He's still on the power play, still on the PK, still dynamite on faceoffs, with the latter having been a marked weakness of the current Penguins. And at 6-4, 206, there'd be size added, too.
Bill Guerin's the GM in St. Paul now, and he and Rutherford already hooked up on Zucker. Guerin's got a lot of pieces to move out still, and Staal's $3.25 million salary with another year left on the contract is probably part of that.
Remember, one thing the Penguins do have at this deadline, as Taylor's computed for us, is cap space. She projects they can take on more than $4 million, actually.
• Also on the cap space front, how about Conor Sheary?
He's performed well below his $3 million annual salary in Buffalo with nine goals, 10 assists in 55 games. But he's unrestricted this summer, and Jason Botterill, another Rutherford protege, has more to gain from moving him than keeping him. The price here couldn't be high.
No one would have to wonder what Sheary would bring from a championship-pedigree standpoint, and he's also had extensive -- and occasionally highly successful -- stints alongside Crosby.
• On defense ... candidly, I can't take this too seriously, barring the Penguins having bona fide concerns about Dumoulin's health. If any move is made, it'll be -- and should be -- at the bottom of the depth chart. Meaning either Juuso Riikola can be used as a chip, since Sullivan clearly doesn't want to use him on the ice. Or that any acquisition would be for depth.
That all feels unnecessary to me.
• To put this on the record for maybe the millionth time: I'd hate losing Poulin or Legaré. It was impossible for anyone who witnessed the camp/preseason those two, not to mention the confidence and character they were showing, and not get intoxicated with their potential. Both will be in the NHL before long, and both will produce. What they've done in the Quebec League since then only bolsters that.
There really will be a Pittsburgh franchise in the league once Crosby and Malkin are gone. And that really does matter, too.
• Rutherford's winning formula forever has been that he'll focus on what he wants, then find a way to get it. And that's wonderful. He's not enshrined in Toronto for nothing.
But this time feels different. This time feels like the price matters more than the player, particularly when it comes to a pure rental. We aren't in Jarome Iginla territory with the trajectory of the team's core anymore. Balance is needed.
Anyway, should be fun, right?
Except for one individual.
Whatever job anyone has, with all due apologies to military members, first responders, astronauts, coal miners, sky divers and Downtown crosswalk monitors ... it's got to feel less perilous than Rutherford's on this particular day.
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