BRADENTON, Fla. -- Joe Musgrove has been a popular breakout candidate pick among the pitching analytics community for a few years now. He checks just about every box one could want in a starter. He's big and strong. He has six pitches that he can pick and choose when to throw. Just about every one of his peripherals is at least pretty good, including his FIP, which has been in the mid-threes each of his first two seasons with the Pirates. The ERA just hasn't followed suit.
Musgrove has been fine since coming to Pittsburgh. He's not Gerrit Cole, but then again, how many pitchers are? Baseball-Reference had him pegged for 1.6 WAR last year, a very average total. FanGraphs' pitcher WAR is primarily based on FIP, and they had him worth 3.3 wins above replacement, a quietly very good total.
Even if his ERA and FIP matched, it still feels like Musgrove has another gear that he has not been able to reach yet. Until perhaps now.
Take this interview with our Dejan Kovacevic after his first spring appearance:
Big Joe on showing a really big curve, a pitch he didn’t use much in 2019. #DKPS #Pirates pic.twitter.com/mn3ShLi6HF
— Dejan Kovacevic (@Dejan_Kovacevic) February 25, 2020
That's certainly a change in rhetoric from the classic "pitch down at the knees" mentality. Let's dive into how that may affect Musgrove's performance this year:
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