We all remember Josh Bell doing stuff like this, right?
Good, good. Just making sure. It might be easy to forget Bell's historic launch in 2019 — one that saw him capture National League Player of the Month honors in May — when considering that devastating, 69-93 Pirates season as a whole.
Through May 31, though — a stretch of 56 games — Bell hit 18 home runs and drove in 52 runs, slashing .343/.405/.704. The results inserted his name into conversations with guys like Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson.
Decent.
“I’m jealous how easy it is,” Colin Moran told me of Bell's performance during that May run. “It’s just too easy. He’s so talented. He can do it all. He can take you deep and then he can, you know, two strikes take through a ball and take a single. He’s so talented that, in all seriousness, it’s just fun to watch.”
From that point forward, though, it wasn't so easy for Bell or for the Pirates, who imploded after the All-Star break and fully collapsed down the stretch. In Bell's final 87 games, he hit 19 home runs and drove in 64 runs, slashing .232/.342/.476. That basically matches the production of his March 28 - May 31 run despite having the benefit of 31 additional games. Poof went Bell's efficiency and poof went the Pirates' season.
It wasn't good. Making matters worse, Bell tweaked his groin in a Sept. 13 loss to the Cubs and eventually was shut down two weeks later. The season that started with a historic boom ended with a whimper.
So where do we set expectations for Bell in 2020?
Despite his season-ending slump, Bell still finished with a strong stat line in 2019: 37 home runs, 116 RBIs, a .277/.357/.569 slash line and an OPS+ of 143. It was, unquestionably, the best performance of his four-year Major League Baseball career.
This firmly established Bell as a can't-miss at-bat and earned him an All-Star nod (as well as an appearance in the Home Run Derby) but it also brought heightened expectations for 2020.
The important note here, though, is this: If we get an MLB season in 2020, it's not going to be 162 games. We know that.
So talking about 40 home runs or 120 RBIs for Bell, raising the bar again, is moot. He's not hitting 40 home runs in 81 games. Sorry 'bout it.
But let's crunch some numbers and see what we can expect from Bell in a shortened, 81-game season. What numbers would be equivalent to last year's performance? What would be better?
With the power of Baseball-Reference.com and a calculator, all things are possible, Lunatics. Let's dig in.
AVERAGE PRODUCTION
In four years at the big-league level, Bell's appeared in 495 games, making 1,705 at-bats and hitting 78 home runs at a .265/.354/.477 clip. Along with that, he's posted 287 RBIs, 102 doubles, 13 triples and, hey, for fun, four stolen bases.
The slash line is already averaged out, so we'll keep that for his average 2020 production. If he just does basic, ho-hum Josh Bell stuff, he'll slash .265/.354/.477 in 2020.
The rest of the line, assuming his average pace across 81 games, is as follows:
- 13 home runs, 47 RBIs, 17 doubles, two triples, and 0.65 stolen bases
Look, I'm rounding up here with that last stat. It's too fun. Bell's stealing a base in 2020. Let's get weird.
LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION
As we already established, Bell had a career-best 2019 campaign. Maybe his journey didn't end as many fans would have liked, but there were flashes of genuine greatness throughout. Once again, we'll keep that .277/.367/.569 slash line and assume he is exactly that efficient again in 2020.
The rest of his line, then, would shake out as such:
- 21 home runs, 66 RBIs, 21 doubles, two triples, zero stolen bases
Dang. In this simulation, Bell doesn't get the stolen base, but 21 home runs and 66 RBIs across 81 games would represent a solid follow-up to his All-Star 2019.
Now, a fun one ... for science.
LAST MAY'S PRODUCTION
What if Bell channels all this coronavirus madness into sheer brilliance at the plate? What if this extended offseason gave him exactly the amount of time he needed to return not just to 2019's form but to that near-legendary May of 2019 form?
From May 1 to May 31, 2019, Bell slashed .390/.442/.797 in 29 games. The rest of his stats, averaged over an 81-game slate, are equally bonkers:
- 34 home runs, 87 RBIs, 34 doubles, zero triples, zero stolen bases
No triples and no stolen bases (hard to do either when you're just cracking dingers practically every other game) but, my goodness. This one, to me, truly frames Bell's May run from last year. Those are decent numbers across a full 162-game season. To do it in just 81 would be an absurd accomplishment.
Bell's shown he can do that in spurts. Putting it together across an entire 81-game season is unlikely, but that line is a good benchmark to have when comparing just how much Bell did or did not improve in this (hopefully) upcoming, oddball season.
To tie a bow on this discussion, let's flesh out one more line. This one, I think, is the most realistic barometer for Bell, and it'd be most telling for his continued progression as a star in the major leagues.
LAST MAY/LAST YEAR AVERAGE
It's just not realistic for Bell to maintain that ridiculous level of production across 81 games or even another 29-game stretch, really. What he can do, however, is avoid the crash-and-burn effect down the home stretch of an 81-game season. His conditioning should be on point heading into the 2020 campaign, and the team, one would hope, will not face the mental challenges associated with last year's collapse.
For that, Bell could realistically fall somewhere between the totality of last year's production (which contained the slump) and May's production (which was an outlier in the other direction).
If a steady improvement is made, Bell's 81-game line would fall somewhere between the two:
- 24 home runs, 70 RBIs, 24 doubles, one triple, zero stolen bases with a .285/.382/.615 slash line
You'll notice here these numbers are not a simple average between last May and last year as a whole. To get these figures, I weighted the numbers. Since May 2019 represented just 29 games, roughly 20 percent of Bell's season, a direct average would have given inflated figures. Instead, I handicapped that a touch to give more accurate results by giving more weight, 80 percent, to the 2019 season as a whole.
So when this 2020 season begins (fingers crossed) look for an improved Bell to smack 24 home runs, 70 RBIs, 24 doubles and a triple while slashing .285/.382/.615.
Those numbers will help frame your expectations and feelings throughout this strange campaign.
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