We are all guilty of the same crime. That crime is placing ridiculously lofty goals on rookies in the NFL. The Steelers' broad and rabid fan base, like all other fan bases, does this annually with their new class of players.
Without a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Steelers fans had to sit around and wait to see the team's top pick in the second. The pick was Notre Dame receiver Chase Claypool, and fans have been mesmerized by his size, speed and athleticism. All it took was a Chris Simms YouTube breakdown comparing Claypool to Calvin Johnson and fans were caught.
Hook, line and sinker.
But are these expectations realistic?
More important, is it fair to compare Claypool to Megatron?
Setting realistic expectations is important, and if a rookie is able to exceed those expectations consider it a cherry on top of the sundae. However, going into a season thinking a player like Claypool will be the next Johnson with no rookie minicamp, no mandatory minicamp and no in-person OTAs is a stretch.
Can the past prove the present? Let's take a look back at some of the most prolific Steelers receivers in the last few decades and see how they performed in their first season as professionals.
Hines Ward (1998)
Games: 16
Receptions: 15 (33 targets)
Quarterback: Kordell Stewart
Yards: 246 (Long: 45 yards)
TD: 0
Santonio Holmes (2006)
Games: 16
Receptions: 49 (86 targets)
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger
Yards: 824 (Long: 67 yards)
TD: 2
Plaxico Burress (2000)
Games: 12
Receptions: 22 (65 targets)
Quarterback: Stewart
Yards: 273 (Long: 39 yards)
TD: 0
Antonio Brown (2010)
Games: 9
Receptions: 16 (19 targets)
Quarterback: Roethlisberger
Yards: 167 (Long: 26 yards)
TD: 0
Mike Wallace (2009)
Games: 16
Receptions: 39 (72 targets)
Quarterback: Roethlisberger
Yards: 756 (Long: 60 yards)
TD: 6
JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017)
Games: 14
Receptions: 58 (79 targets)
Quarterback: Roethlisberger
Yards: 917 (Long: 97 yards)
TD: 7
Diontae Johnson (2019)
Games: 16
Receptions: 59 (92 targets)
Quarterback: Roethlisberger/Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges
Yards: 680 (Long: 45 yards)
TD: 5
The wide receiver position is one which requires help. Football is the ultimate team sport, but if a wide receiver doesn't have a capable quarterback throwing footballs in their direction, it can hurt their production tremendously.
Nonetheless, when you look at the above stats of these wide receivers, you see there are so many different factors which come into play as it pertains to rookie production. A player like Ward was coming into the NFL as a college quarterback. He was primarily a special teams player before eventually becoming one of the most beloved Steelers in team history. The same can be said about Brown. Coming out of Central Michigan, Brown was as raw as they come, and he was a return specialist before he became a mainstay at the receiver position.
When you look at receivers like Wallace, Holmes and Smith-Schuster you can see the benefits they received by coming into the NFL as a pro-ready player, but also having a future Hall of Fame quarterback throwing them the football.
Since the comparison was made between Johnson and Claypool, let's take a look at Megatron's rookie numbers.
Calvin Johnson (2007)
Games: 15
Receptions: 48 (93 targets)
Quarterback: Dan Orlovsky, Drew Stanton
Yards: 756 (Long: 49 yards)
TD: 4
Sometimes you need to see both ends of the spectrum to nail down your expectations for rookies. You look at Ward and Brown's receiving numbers, and you see players who were still raw and unfinished. Now for the other end of the spectrum.
Most receiving yards by a rookie:
Bill Groman (1960) - 1,473
Anquan Boldin (2003) - 1,377
Randy Moss (1998) - 1,313
Time to come full circle. What can Steelers fan expect of Claypool in his rookie campaign? One thing is a guarantee, and that is his play on special teams. Claypool is a player who is not afraid of contact, and played special teams for Brian Kelly at Notre Dame, but he will be able to contribute much more than that as a rookie in Pittsburgh.
Claypool's huge frame will be perfect to utilize as a run blocker, another job most receivers despise, but Claypool seems to enjoy. A simple search will show you numerous pancake blocks by Claypool on smaller defensive backs during his time in college. That likely won't change in the NFL, especially since you can't teach Claypool's size and strength.
Those are all well and good, but what about production? What can fans actually expect from him as a pass catcher? If I am sticking to the past proves present model, I would look at the following player's rookie production as a realistic comparison.
Martavis Bryant (2014)
Games: 10
Receptions: 26 (48 targets)
Quarterback: Roethlisberger
Yards: 549 (Long: 94 yards)
TD: 8
I don't see any reason, barring injury, why Claypool won't play more than 10 games in his rookie season, but these numbers are about where I would set the bar for the second round selection. And that includes the touchdowns. If there is one area of the field where Claypool could dominate, even as a rookie, it is the red-zone. Combine Claypool with Vance McDonald, Eric Ebron and Smith-Schuster and you have yourself four very big, and strong, receiving options where it matters most.
Can a receiver be a part of an offense and really only be a red-zone threat? Absolutely. Do I need to remind you of Jerricho Cotchery's 2013 season? A season where he had just 602 yards receiving, but 10 touchdowns. Yeah, it's possible.
The overwhelming feeling from the fan base when talking about Claypool is how he has first round expectations placed on him. I get it, it was the team's first pick of the draft, but let's not forget he was a second round pick. There is a reason he wasn't selected in the first round. Then again, the Steelers have had tremendous success taking receivers in the second round, and there is no reason to think they haven't struck gold again with Claypool.
Claypool might not be the dynamic playmaker fans want, yet, but he absolutely can be a key contributor on special teams, in the running game and as a receiver. That's a triple threat fans can certainly get behind.
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