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ACC football: Coastal parity + Clemson

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Clemson is favored to win a sixth consecutive ACC Atlantic Division title this season. - Clemson Athletics

Two college football heavyweights have ruled over one division for the past decade. In the other league, parity rules.

Welcome to the ACC, where the Atlantic and Coastal divisions are studies in contrast.

Clemson certainly reigns supreme in the Atlantic, winning the past five division titles and ACC championship games. Before the Tigers' run, Florida State called the shots, winning four titles in five years. As for the fifth title, yep, Clemson won that one, too.

Things are way different in the Coastal.

Last season, Virginia finished first. Pitt (2018), Miami (2017), Virginia Tech (2016), North Carolina (2015), Georgia Tech (2014) and Duke (2013) have taken turns atop the division. Only the Hokies (three titles) and the Yellow Jackets (twice) are multiple Coastal winners in the past decade. The Coastal is so parity-ridden, there's a running joke every team will finish 4-4 one of these years.

Could this be there year it happens? Probably not, but then again, not much separates top contenders Miami, North Carolina, Pitt and Virginia Tech.

Could this be the year someone challenges Clemson in the Atlantic? Highly unlikely.

Then again, we're not certain what the ACC will look like this season, if there is one. Notre Dame could be a member. Geographic pods could be used for scheduling.

Until a decision is made, let's take a business-as-usual approach to these preseason predictions.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

1. CLEMSON

Outlook: Picking the Tigers to win the Atlantic has become an annual tradition, and, let's face it, while Louisville and Florida State should be better this season, neither is ready to challenge Clemson's supremacy.

And this is after Clemson lost its best defensive player in Isaiah Simmons, three starting defensive backs, four starting offensive linemen plus wide receiver Justyn Ross, whose playing career is in jeopardy because of a spinal issue.

When Trevor Lawrence is the starting quarterback and a non-stop source of blue-chip recruits flow into the program, there's no other choice.

The only tricky game on the Tigers' schedule is at Notre Dame. Barring something unforeseen, Clemson will be a Top 5 team most of the season.

2. LOUISVILLE

Outlook: Offensively, the Cardinals are stacked.

Quarterback Micale Cunningham, wide receiver Tutu Atwell and running back Javian Hawkins are a potent power trio, giving the Cardinals big-play possibilities on every down. The offense put together 62- and 56-point efforts last season.

Defensively, the Cardinals are a work in progress.

Louisville was weak up the middle last season, but it does return a bevy of experience, which should help matters, even if only a little bit.

3. WAKE FOREST

Outlook: Head coach Dave Clawson steadily built Wake Forest into a winner last season, when the Demon Deacons stumbled to an 8-5 record after a surprising 7-1 start, which speaks volumes about the Atlantic Division after Clemson.

Quarterback Sam Hartman replaces Jamie Newman, who transferred to Georgia. Hartman previously was the starter before Newman took over, so it's not as big of a hit as some might think. Hartman has a big-time target in receiver Sage Surratt, an All-American candidate.

There are 14 contributors, led by defensive lineman Carlos Basham, returning on defense, which should help the team make significant improvements on an area of weakness last season.

4. FLORIDA STATE

Outlook: New head coach Mike Norvelt was an assistant at Pitt during that memorable season with Todd Graham as head coach.

A lot has happened since 2011, including plenty of turnover at Florida State.

Norvelt is the Seminoles' third coach in four years, which means another new offense for quarterback James Blackman, who is entering what seems like his sixth year with the team. Tamorrion Terry is his top target and possibly the ACC's most talented receiver.

Speaking of talent, defensive tackle Marvin Wilson might have more of it than any other defender in the conference. The problem is those surrounding Wilson.

5. BOSTON COLLEGE

Outlook: The Eagles won six or seven games six times in former coach Steve Addazio's seven seasons. And Pitt fans think its program is the definition of mediocrity.

Jeff Hafley, another former Pitt assistant, takes over, and Boston College has seen immediate recruiting dividends.

The Eagles have playmakers on offense in running back David Bailey, tight end Hunter Long and receivers Kobay White and Zay Flowers. BC also boasts a tough, durable offensive line that run blocks as well as any.

What the Eagles need is an answer at quarterback. Pine-Richland High School graduate Phil Jurkovec is a Notre Dame transfer and a former blue-chip recruit whose presence could vault the team up the Atlantic standings. Until Jurkovec and Boston College get word on the status of his eligibility-request waiver, the Eagles will look toward Dennis Grosel, who completed just 48 percent of his passes last season.

6. SYRACUSE

Outlook: The Orange won 10 games in 2018. Seems like a distant memory.

Quarterback Tommy DeVito struggled through last season, partly because of a porous offensive line, a unit that allowed 44 sacks and constant pressure. Some offensive lines are decent in one aspect, but not this group. Syracuse's run game added little to the offense.

The good news? Free safety Andre Cisco -- the team's best player -- is back, and the safeties around him -- Eric Coley and Trill Williams -- are solid. But depth and experience are things this defense, and the Orange in general, lack.

7. N.C. STATE

Outlook: Quarterbacks Devin Leary and Bailey Hockman combined for a 102.6 passer rating. Yuck! Unless that improves significantly, there's not much hope for this offense.

Which is a shame because there is talent in spots. Zonovan Knight and Jordan Houston provide a nice 1-2 punch at running back, there's a decent offensive line and receiver Devin Carter flashes potential.

The defense looks iffy, too, though the group should be improved for second-year coordinator Tony Gibson, another former Pitt assistant under Graham in 2011. Linebackers Payton Wilson and Drake Thomas lead the way, and cornerback Malik Dunlap could be in line for a breakout season.

Still, there's not a lot to like about this Wolfpack team.

COASTAL DIVISION

1. MIAMI

Outlook: The Hurricanes were up-and-down last season, but they also were a little unlucky, finding ways to lose games (Georgia Tech, Florida International, Virginia Tech) where statistics suggest they should have won.

To shake off last year's 6-7 record, Miami shook things up.

Quarterback D'Eriq King is a transfer from Houston who had a monster season in 2018 before deciding to leave the program in the middle of last season. He became the division's second-best quarterback upon arrival, and he'll be paired with a new offensive coordinator in Rhett Lashlee. Tight end Brevin Jordan is the ACC's best and running back Cam'Ron Harris gives King another explosive playmaker.

On defense, ends Gregory Rousseau and Quincy Roche are as disruptive as it gets, and the Hurricanes' secondary should be able to handle the division's bevy of experienced quarterbacks.

2. PITT

Outlook: OK, we know about the defense. It's loaded, especially along the defensive line and in the secondary.

So what about the offense?

The group must take a significant step forward for Pitt to improve upon last season's 8-5 record and 4-4 mark in conference play. The guess here is the offense does make some improvement, just not enough to win the division.

Kenny Pickett threw for more than 3,000 yards but his 122.4 passer rating ranked 101st nationally. In conference play, he threw just eight touchdowns to nine interceptions, but possibly no quarterback in the country was hurt more by dropped passes. Pitt also returns experience at running back, wide receiver and up front.

The schedule isn't easy -- Pitt likely will be underdogs for games at Miami, Florida State and North Carolina -- but it isn't as strenuous as recent seasons.

[caption id="attachment_941479" align="aligncenter" width="642"] Kenny Pickett throws a 96-yard TD pass in the Quick Lane Bowl[/caption]

3. NORTH CAROLINA

Outlook: At the skill positions, the only ACC team North Carolina takes a backseat to is Clemson, but the gap between them is closer than one might think.

Quarterback Sam Howell played as well as any freshman in the country, and no one was more successful throwing the deep ball. Receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are coming off 1,000-yard seasons, and the 1-2 punch at running back in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams also return.

Couple the high-powered offense with a heralded recruiting class that includes blue-chip cornerback Tony Grimes, and it's easy to see why the Tar Heels are the trendy pick to win the division.

Where UNC must make strides is on defense, but last year's youthful mix gained a lot of experience. Cornerback Storm Duck is one of the ACC's best.

4. VIRGINIA TECH

Outlook: Bud Foster received more attention than any assistant coach in college football (possibly in the history of the sport), but his retirement certainly creates a void.

But there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Hokies and it starts with quarterback Hendon Hooker. After a 2-2 start last season, Hooker took over the offense and went 6-0, including a thoroughly convincing 28-0 win against Pitt. Virginia Tech ended the season with losses to Virginia and Kentucky but scored 30 points in both games.

The entire starting offensive line is back.

In linebacker Rayshard Ashby and cornerback Caleb Farley, new defensive coordinator Justin Hamilton gets two future pros and one of college football's best secondaries.

5. DUKE

Outlook: If there's a sleeper team this season in the Coastal, David Cutcliffe's Blue Devils are a good bet to be it.

Quarterback Chase Brice, who backed up Lawrence the past two years at Clemson, gives Duke more opportunity to complete passes downfield, something the offense lacked last season. Brice won't be surrounded by many playmakers, but Cutcliffe is an imaginative coach and the line should be improved because of experience and another transfer in Devery Hamilton (Stanford).

Defensive end Chris Rumph II is one of the conference's best players and a likely high-round draft choice. The secondary is a strength and could get a significant boost if Mark Gilbert, who missed the past two seasons rehabbing a hip injury, can be a contributor.

6. VIRGINIA

Outlook: Virginia was picked to win the Coastal last year, and the Cavaliers delivered behind the play of quarterback Bryce Perkins, now an undrafted rookie free agent with the Rams.

Quarterbacks Brennan Armstrong and Keytaon Thompson likely will compete for the starting job, and the winner gets a pair of sure-handed receivers in Terrell Jana and Billy Kemp IV and a sturdy offensive line.

Virginia was susceptible to the big play last season, but returns most of its key contributors, including linebacker Zane Zandier (Thomas Jefferson).

7. GEORGIA TECH

Outlook: A new coach (Geoff Collins), a new offense (goodbye, triple option) and freshmen and sophomores at almost every starting position on offense predictably led to a bad 2019 for the Yellow Jackets.

So what to expect in Year 2 of the rebuild? Not much from this perspective.

Running back Jordan Mason is a decent building block, but Georgia Tech likely will struggle again offensively. The Yellow Jackets' saving grace is a decent defense that performed well last season despite its youth. If the pass defense improves, maybe Georgie Tech will climb from the Coastal basement.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Clemson over Miami

 

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