Think of it this way: Pitt couldn't get much lower.
As the Panthers get ready to open training camp Friday at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex, their primary concern on offense has to be, plain and simple, recovering from their abysmal 2019. Last year, they ranked next to last in ACC scoring with 21.5 points per game, only ahead of Georgia Tech.
That has to change, even with the star-studded defense leading the way.
The best factor this offense has going for it was undoubtedly its passing game, as Kenny Pickett's 258.2 passing yards per game was second best in the ACC. But finishing was the big problem for Pickett and the offense. Pickett's 13 touchdowns ranked 9th among ACC quarterbacks. That issue was highlighted even further with Pitt only scoring nine touchdowns during their 24 red zone possessions in ACC play, the worst in the conference.
Despite this, Pickett is on the preseason watch list for the Maxwell Award. His 2019 had bright moments like his leading of a comeback win over Central Florida where he threw and caught a touchdown, or his 359 yard passing game against North Carolina that featured a passing touchdown and two rushing touchdowns.
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But before any awards can seriously be considered for Pickett, he has to pick up his contributions to scoring through the air.
Picket must channel the developed chemistry from his experience with his receiving corps. His leading receiver from 2019, Maurice Ffrench, is gone, but he gets Shocky Jacques-Louis and Taysir Mack back. Mack and Jaques-Louis combined for over 1000 receiving yards and five touchdowns as the second and third receiving options.
Both are better receivers lining up outside to present deep big play options for Pickett. Finding the one-on-one opportunities for Pickett will be a huge key to Pitt improving their scoring and red zone numbers. Here's an example of that working against Duke last season with a touchdown pass to Mack.
Pitt used pre-snap motion to swing any safety help away from Mack, giving Pickett a clear target while Mack has a clean release so that the ball can float towards the pylon:
Mack's three touchdowns represented a third of Pitt's red zone touchdowns in 2019 and could be a go-to method for Pickett to simplify options when the field shrinks in the red zone.
Jacques-Louis doesn't win jump balls as much as Mack, but he's flashed back shoulder chemistry with Pickett. His best moments came when he backed off cornerbacks with his speed and release only to look back for a well-placed ball on his back shoulder.
Timing patterns like this touchdown are another way to simplify the game when one-on-one matchups are given:
Not to be overlooked is the potential return of Tre Tipton, whose injuries have sidelined him in three of his last four seasons. The prospect of Tipton's athleticism has excitement around the hope he can stay healthy enough to be the shifty option in the slot that opens up the middle of the field.
In addition to Tipton, the passing offense gets the addition of Lucas Krull, a transfer from Florida who's on the preseason watch list for the Mackey Award. He didn't have much a chance to shine at Florida with nine catches for 108 yards across two seasons. But Pitt has to hope his 6-foot-6, 257-pound frame provides another boost for Pickett's red-zone efficiency.
The other aspect of Pitt's game of serious improvement is it's run game. It isn't needed to lead the unit, but at least to provide balance to the offense. The biggest factors to their improvement have to rely on the anchor of the line, its center Jimmy Morrissey and its returning running back A.J. Davis.
Morrissey is on the preseason watch list for both the Outland Trophy and the Campbell Trophy and projects as a potential late round draft pick if he puts together a strong season. Davis flashed potential last season against defenses who got caught looking for the pass.
Passing to set up the run is the ticket for this offense. Davis won't create too much on his own behind the line, but give him a crease and he can gain the extra yards to balance the offense.
Watch this cutback on a zone scheme where he makes a defender miss at the second level:
It's odd to have a talented Pitt team without a strong running back based on recent history, but it's improved efficiency in the passing game that will make this team more competitive in big games.
If they are to improve from their 4-4 ACC record in 2019, the Panthers don't need their offense to make a huge jump to become a top-five unit in the conference. That would be entirely unrealistic. But if they can rank toward the middle of the conference by even averaging one more touchdown per game, it will open the door for the defense that ranked third in the ACC in 2019 to win more games.
The defense will lead this team in 2020, and that'll be next in the 2020 Pitt preview.
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