Penguins

Analysis: Penguins need new pieces to contend

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Kris Letang in Toronto. - GETTY

It is known, in the parlance of the game, as "Breakup Day."

It is when a team, its season complete, gathers for the final time. Players clean out their lockers, collect possessions and the equipment they'll need during the offseason. They go through exit interviews and bid farewell to teammates, some of whom they never will share another dressing room with.

And so it presumably will be for the Penguins sometime in the near future, in the wake of their humbling loss to the Canadiens in the best-of-five Stanley Cup qualifying-round series designed to whittle eight teams from the field of postseason candidates. When that end-of-season function will take place -- assuming the pandemic doesn't force it to be abandoned -- hasn't been announced, but it's not as if the Penguins don't have anything else coming up soon to command their attention.

Indeed, the organization's focus now will shift to Phase 2 of the NHL's draft lottery Monday evening, when it will be determined if they have the No. 1 or No. 15 choice in the opening round this fall.

Their first-rounder had been ticketed for Minnesota as part of the Jason Zucker trade, but Jim Rutherford -- in a move that seemed extraordinarily cautious, if not flat-out unnecessary at the time -- made certain to have the pick lottery-protected. That meant the Penguins would have the option to keep it and defer the choice to 2021 if they failed to qualify for the playoffs which, at the time of the trade, seemed slightly less likely than the chances of them capturing the Cup, then following it up by winning the World Series and Super Bowl.

A couple of weeks later, though, the coronavirus pandemic changed everything.

When the NHL suspended operations March 12, the Penguins had the league's seventh-best record, despite sputtering for several weeks before the shutdown. And when the league created a format for a postseason tournament that expanded the field from 16 to 24 teams, the Penguins were matched against Montreal -- the only team of the 24 that didn't have a winning record during the regular season -- in a play-in round.

It could have -- probably should have -- been little more than a three- or four-game formality for them, a nice tuneup for Round 1 of the actual playoffs.

And then the games happened.

A week later, the Penguins' postseason began -- and their interest in Phase 2 of the lottery surged higher than Carey Price's save percentage in the Montreal series.

They have a 1-in-8 chance of ending up with the rights to super-prospect Alexis Lafreniere -- considerably better odds than in 2005, when they landed Sidney Crosby despite having just a 6.3 percent chance of doing so -- but even if they pick 15th, it will be their earliest choice since they claimed Derrick Pouliot eighth overall in 2012.

And while a source said Saturday that management will make its "final decision next week" on whether to send the No. 1 to the Wild or to defer until 2021, it's had to imagine a scenario under which the Penguins would part with the pick for this year.

If nothing else, giving it to Minnesota now would imply that the Penguins expect to own a higher choice in 2021, and the only way they could do that, barring a trade, would be to fail to qualify for the playoffs.

That's a concession no one in the organization -- not ownership or Rutherford, not Mike Sullivan or his players -- is willing to make.

Nor should they be.

There is, after all, no reason the Penguins shouldn't be a better-than-average team in 2020-21, and in a league that lets 16 of 31 clubs reach the postseason, that should be more than enough to get in.

But it's been well over a decade since the Penguins went into a season with the objective of simply reaching the playoffs; the singular goal for most of the Crosby-Evgeni Malkin era has been to win Cups, and the Penguins have three banners to show for it.

However, a team that couldn't survive a series against a young, inexperienced club of the Canadiens' pedestrian caliber isn't a minor tweak or two from again contending for a title.

Especially when it is 1-9 in its past 10 postseason games.

That's not a skid; it's a yearly plunge without a parachute.

Assessing culpability for those playoff flops, including the most recent, is easy. Point a finger in any direction, and it's a pretty good bet that it's aimed at a guy who bears at least some responsibility.

It might be Rutherford or Sullivan, Matt Murray or Malkin, Kris Letang or Jake Guentzel. Brian Dumoulin or almost everyone who took shifts on the third line. And pretty much anyone else who pulled on a sweater against the Canadiens.

Winning is a team effort. So, much of the time, is losing.

The Montreal series is history, of course, and nothing will alter the outcome, because the past cannot be changed.

The future can be, however, and if the Penguins are going to have a realistic shot at reclaiming a spot among the league's elite teams before Crosby and Malkin are on the dark side of their prime years, Rutherford probably will have to have a Breakup Day of his own.

Or, perhaps, a few Breakup Weeks. Or Months.

It's not that this team, as currently constructed, is in danger of deteriorating into the pre-Crosby Penguins. Just that all that has transpired during the past three postseasons makes it clear that, at least when the regular season has passed, the total of the Penguins' personnel becomes less than the sum of its parts.

And there's no reason to believe much will change if the Penguins stick with the same basic group, simply dabble on the margins of their roster.

That might not quite be the popular definition of insanity, but it definitely isn't a formula for playoff success, either.

Some moves, such as allowing unrestricted-free-agents-to-be Conor Sheary, Patrick Marleau and Justin Schultz to seek work elsewhere, should not require much thought or effort.

Others won't be nearly so easy.

Especially when all teams will be operating under a stagnant salary cap, with a ceiling of $81.5 million. And some that don't have a billionaire like Ron Burkle in their ownership group might be further restricted in making personnel moves because of the revenue losses rooted in the pandemic.

Rutherford has to decide whether Murray or Tristan Jarry is the team's goalie of the future, although Jarry seems to have an edge after being chosen to play in Game 4 against Montreal. Both will be restricted free agents, and it is difficult to imagine how the Penguins could retain both -- or that either of them would be interested in sharing the job, let alone being a backup.

Letang, meanwhile, could be an interesting chip if Rutherford pursues some high-stakes trade talks. He's been the cornerstone of the Penguins' defense for years, but has two seasons remaining on a contract worth $7.25 million in each of them.

Letang could veto a trade to all but 18 teams, which reduces Rutherford's leverage if he chooses to investigate trades, but if the Penguins believe John Marino is capable of playing on a No. 1 pairing, dealing Letang could open some cap space and bring a nice return.

It's worth remembering, though, that if the Penguins let Schultz walk, parting with Letang might be risky because they would be shedding two of their top three right-handed defensemen.

A tough call?

Sure. And it won't be the only one Rutherford, who has proven willing to pull off bold moves when he decides one is required, has to make between now and the trade deadline next year.

He's proven capable of assembling championship teams, and assuming management doesn't stray from the "win-now" mandate Rutherford received when he replaced Ray Shero in 2014, he figures to go after the task with vigor.

But identifying, then acquiring, players who could help to lift the Penguins back into serious contention won't be all that he must accomplish.

Rebuilding might even be the easy part; picking the right key pieces to remove from the mix is tougher.

Because breaking up is hard to do.

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