The Penguins have five selections in this summer's draft: First round (21st overall), fourth round (98th overall), fifth round (145th overall), and two in the seventh round (203rd and 207th overall).
What can the past tell us about the odds of those picks panning out for the Penguins?
In 2014, TSN's Scott Cullen conducted a study analyzing all players drafted between 1990 and 2009. He recorded the number of players who went on to play at least 100 games in the NHL, and assigned each player a ranking based on the following criteria:
10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular
4 - Fringe NHLer
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games
Using Cullen's data, we can estimate the average impact of a player based on their draft position. Here, we'll take a look at the odds for each selection the Penguins possess in the upcoming draft, and take a look at some players throughout history who were selected at that position.
ROUND 1: 21st OVERALL
In Cullen's study, the 21st overall pick had an average rating of 4.63. That puts them somewhere between a fringe NHL player and an NHL regular.
20 percent of players drafted at this position were a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman or better, and 55 percent of players drafted at this position were NHL regulars or worse. 70 percent of players drafted 21st overall went on to play at least 100 games in the NHL.
Two of the best players to come out of the 21st overall pick throughout history have been Saku Koivu and Tuukka Rask. In the Penguins' case, the best No. 21 in franchise history has been Colby Armstrong. Competition was slim, as the Penguins have only selected 21st overall three times in their history -- 1968, 1970, and 2001.
ROUND 4: 98th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 91 and 100 had an average rating of 2.10 in Cullen's study, making the average player drafted at this position more of a minor-league player who plays fewer than 50 NHL games in their career. 24.5 percent of players drafted at this position went on to play more than 100 NHL games.
90 percent of players drafted at this position were NHL regulars or worse, while 3.5 percent of players drafted at this position were a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman or better. Gems to come out of this pick range include Marc Savard, Patrick Sharp, Alexander Edler, and Johan Franzen. Tyler Kennedy, who was drafted 99th overall, is the most notable player the Penguins have selected when in possession of a pick in this range.
ROUND 5: 145th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 136 and 150 had an average rating of 1.64 in Cullen's study, making the average player selected here someone who plays between 10 and 50 NHL games in their career. 13.4 percent of players played more than 100 NHL games.
94.3 percent of players drafted at this position were NHL regulars or worse, and two percent of players drafted at this position were a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman or better. Some of the best players to come out of this draft pick range have been Ryan Miller, Andrei Kovalenko, and Bryce Salvador. The Penguins took Paul Stanton, Jake Muzzin, Anthony Angello, and Dominik Simon in this area of the draft.
ROUND 7: 203rd OVERALL, 207th OVERALL
Players drafted between picks No. 196 and 210 had an average rating of 1.49, making the average player selected here someone who plays between 10 and 50 NHL games in their career. That number isn't far off from the rating of players drafted in the fifth round, which isn't surprising. In a 2015 TSN study analyzing the number of draft picks who played 50 or more games at the NHL level, the data showed that players selected in later rounds all have nearly the same chance of making the NHL. Only 1.6 percent separated rounds 5-7.
96.3 percent of players drafted at this position were NHL regulars or worse, and 2.3 percent of players drafted at this position (slightly higher than in the fifth round) were a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman or better.
Eight percent of players drafted in this range went on to play more than 100 games in the NHL. Still, this part of the draft has produced some all-stars. Henrik Lundqvist, Henrik Zetterberg, and Tomas Kaberle were all drafted in this range. Notable players drafted by the Penguins in this range include Dave Hannan, Andrew Ference, Tom Kostopoulos, Andy Chiodo, Scott Wilson, and Nikita Pavlychev.
MORE DRAFT PREVIEW COVERAGE
• Primer: Understanding the NHL Draft
• Who do Penguins draft in the first round?
• Penguins' history of selecting 21st overall
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