It's safe to say that the 2020-21 salary cap will not be in the $84 million to $88.2 million range that NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly projected in early March.
The NHL sets its salary cap based on the previous season's revenue, and the league will suffer significant losses in revenue this season, regardless if the league is able to resume its season.
Nobody knows what next season's salary cap will look like. TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported last month that both the league and player's association are unlikely to allow the salary cap's upper limit below the current figure of $81.5 million, and that both sides could agree to an upper limit that isn't based on this season's revenue.
One possible scenario is that the salary cap remains the same, at $81.5 million. The last time the league lost a significant portion of a season, during the 2012-13 lockout, the league and players agreed to keep the salary cap the same as it was the previous season. To compensate for the lack of increase, the league and players agreed to give each team two compliance buyouts that would not count towards the salary cap the way that regular buyouts do. The stipulation was that players were not able to re-sign with the team that bought them out for one calendar year.
Former NHL executive and current Sportsnet analyst Brian Burke reported that the league is discussing a similar situation now, and that teams could potentially get another two compliance buyouts to compensate for the stagnant salary cap.
Last time the NHL permitted compliance buyouts, 19 of the league's 30 teams took advantage of the buyouts, and 28 players were bought out. The Penguins did not buy out any players.
If the NHL does use compliance buyouts this offseason, who are some potential buyout candidates on the Penguins' roster?
NICK BJUGSTAD
Years remaining on contract: One
Cap hit: $4.1 million
Age: 27 (28 in July)
Next season is the last year of Bjugstad's contract, and freeing up that $4.1 million next season would be a good way to make up for the lack of salary cap increase. His trade value is nonexistent at this point, so a buyout would be the only way to get that cap hit off of the Penguins' books. Given that he only played 13 games this season, it's not hard to imagine what the lineup would look like without him. There are cheaper, younger players who can take his spot on the third line and be just as effective, if not more effective.
JACK JOHNSON
Years remaining on contract: Three
Cap hit: $3.25 million
Age: 33
Paying a bottom-pairing defenseman $3.25 million for another three seasons would be tough if the salary cap doesn't increase. It's not going to be any easier to move Johnson's contract as he approaches age 36. Under normal buyout circumstances, the cap implications the Penguins would face over the next six seasons almost make a buyout not worth it. The opportunity to get Johnson's contract off the books without any cap implications would be a big one.
Juuso Riikola has shown that he can handle that third-pairing role. During five-on-five, Riikola blocked shots and dished out hits at a comparable rate to Johnson's. Riikola averaged 3.14 blocked shots per 60 minutes, and Johnson averaged 3.78 per 60 minutes. Riikola averaged 9.57 hits per 60 minutes, and Johnson averaged 8.52 per 60 minutes. Riikola wouldn't take Johnson's spot on the penalty kill, but the Penguins have other defensemen who could.
PATRIC HORNQVIST
Years remaining on contract: Three
Cap hit: $5.3 million
Age: 33
Hornqvist's cap hit is high, and it would be tough to unload it otherwise if needed because of his no-trade clause. He has a full no-trade clause through 2020-21, and that becomes an eight-team no-trade list in the final two years of his contract.
I'd say Hornqvist is the least likely of these three to be bought out if only because of his role on the power play. There isn't anyone who could step into that net-front role as effectively as he does, and the power play performed better when he was in that spot. With Hornqvist this season, the power play scored at a rate of 9.67 goals per 60 minutes. Without Hornqvist, the same unit scored at a rate of 4.81 goals per 60 minutes.
To continue reading, log into your account:
