When the NHL announced the draft lottery format back in May, it was just a funny technicality that the Penguins were still "in" on the Alexis Lafreniere sweepstakes.
There were so many hoops to jump through, though. It wouldn't really happen, right?
In the first phase of the lottery, there was just a 24.5 percent chance that a qualifying-round team placeholder would even get the No. 1 pick. A one in four chance? Slim odds. And even if that were to happen, the Penguins would actually have to lose the five-game series to the No. 24 seed Canadiens. No chance that would happen, right?
After the draw of a lottery ball and a series result that very few people saw coming, the Penguins have a 1-in-8 shot at earning the No. 1 pick and earning the right to draft Rimouski Oceanic forward Lafreniere.
That's a 12.5 percent chance. That's double the odds the Penguins had last time an Oceanic forward was the projected No. 1 pick, when a kid named Sidney Crosby was top-rated prospect in 2005. Luck was on their side that night.
It could be on their side Monday night at 6 p.m., when the NHL holds it's second phase of the draft lottery.
Along with the Penguins, the teams in the lottery will be the Oilers, Panthers, Predators, Rangers, Jets, Wild, and whichever team loses the Maple Leafs-Blue Jackets series. One lottery ball for each team, equal chances.
It's not just a funny technicality anymore, so we might as well take a look at what kind of player the Penguins could potentially get after Monday.
ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
Position: Left wing
Height: 6-1
Weight: 195
Age: 18
Shoots: Left
Number: 11
BACKGROUND
Lafreniere is a native of Saint-Eustache, Quebec, a suburb of Montreal.
2015-16: As a 14-year-old, Lafreniere played bantam hockey with the Mille-Îles Seigneurs, where he and current Penguins forward prospect Nathan Legare finished as the No. 1 and No. 2 scorers respectively, with Lafreniere putting up 69 points in 26 games and Legare scoring 59 in 33.
2016-17: In Lafreniere's 15-year-old midget season, he played for the Saint-Eustache Vikings, where he was again teammates with Legare. Lafreniere led the team with 83 points in 36 games, and Legare finished No. 3 with 51 in 40.
Lafreniere and Legare are still good friends today, and have been posting pictures on Instagram this summer of them hanging out together.
2017-18: Lafreniere broke into the QMJHL with the Oceanic and led the team in scoring with 42 goals and 38 assists in 60 games.
He was named the QMJHL Rookie of the Year, CHL Rookie of the Year, was named to the QMJHL All-Rookie team, QMJHL First All-Star team, and won the Michel Bergeron Trophy (QMJHL Offensive Rookie of the Year).
He represented Canada in the U18 World Junior Championship, the youngest player on the team at age 16. He led the team in scoring with four goals and two assists in five games.
2018-19: Lafreniere was named an alternate captain of the Oceanic and led the team in scoring with 37 goals and 68 assists in 61 games.
The Oceanic made the postseason for the first time in Lafreniere's QMJHL career, and he led the team in postseason scoring with nine goals and 14 assists in 13 games.
Lafreniere was named to the QMJHL's First All-Star team, won CHL Player of the Year, won the Michel Briere Trophy (QMJHL MVP), and won the Paul Dumont Trophy (QMJHL Personality of the Year).
Lafreniere played for Canada in the main U20 World Junior Championship, the youngest player on the roster, and scored one goal in five games.
2019-20: Lafreniere was named captain of the Oceanic, and led the team in scoring by a 24-point margin. He scored 35 goals and 77 assists in 52 games before the QMJHL season ended due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Lafreniere was a First Team All-Star, won the Mike Bossy Trophy (QMJHL Best Professional Prospect), won the Michel Briere Trophy (QMJHL MVP), won the Paul Dumont Trophy (QMJHL Personality of the Year), and led the QMJHL in both assists and points
Lafreniere played in the U20 World Junior Championship again, and finished No. 2 on Canada in scoring with four goals and six assists in five games, having missed two games due to injury as Canada won the gold medal.
Lafreniere was named the tournament's best forward, MVP, and was named to the tournament's First All-Star Team.
Only two players have won the QMJHL Player of the Year award twice in the league's history, and they both just happen to be Oceanic players. Lafreniere is one. Crosby was the first.
Lafreniere's agent is Emilie Castonguay, the only female NHLPA-certified agent.
STRENGTHS
NHL Central Scouting's final rankings report paints Lafreniere to be an elite offensive player.
"Exceptionally smart player with top-end speed and pull-away gear," the report said. "Great at carrying the puck and leading rushes. Executes under pressure and has great vision and anticipation – very good quickness with the puck and exceptional ability to change speed. Elite puck skills and visions to create plays in the offensive zone."
Director of NHL Central Scouting Dan Marr told NHL.com earlier this season that Lafreniere has the qualities that could make him a successful player in today's game: Quickness and poise.
"Every part of the game he's composed, he's smart about it, but he's quick and he has speed so he can execute plays," Marr said. "He sees the ice, he reads the play. Everything he does is at a high tempo."
Rimouski head coach Serge Beausoleil said in the same story that he thought Lafreniere made great strides (literally) when it came to his skating this season, which a few people apparently had concerns about going into the year.
"Lafreniere has increased his speed a lot and I read somewhere that his speed was something of an issue for him at one point, but I don't believe that," he said said. "He has that second level that he can reach and he worked so hard this summer. He's not the same skater this year as he was last year ... he's better."
All you have to do is look at Lafreniere's numbers over the past few seasons to see that he can score.
"He can adjust his game to different types of players but one thing for sure ... if you're the center on his line, look left and give him the puck," Beausoleil said.
He has a laser of a shot:
It's like when you play NHL20 on easy mode:
He's a playmaker. Look at this insane one-handed move he made in December of this season to set up his teammate Cedric Pare for a goal:
And another feed to a teammate for a goal:
NHL COMPARABLES
Despite the similarities in backgrounds between Lafreniere and Crosby, Lafreniere doesn't see himself as much like Crosby on the ice. Lafreniere is more of a flashy player.
“He played in Rimouski, and I did too. That’s something people say,” Lafreniere told the New York Times last season. “But I’m not Crosby. I just try to be myself and play my game. If I can watch Crosby play and do things like he do, for sure I will do it to try to get better, but I don’t think I’m Crosby.”
Lafreniere said in an NHL video conference between top prospects and the media that he tries to model his game after that of Patrick Kane.
“What he can do on the ice, under pressure and in big moments, he can be the difference-maker,” Lafreniere said of Kane. “I always watched him growing up and he’s still my favorite player.”
Central Scouting said that Lafreniere's current skillset is most comparable to that of Jonathan Huberdeau.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Lafreniere is going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, which won't actually take place until Oct. 9. The last Quebecois player to go No. 1 in the draft? Marc-Andre Fleury in 2003.
Lafreniere may not be quite the generational talent in the way that Crosby or Connor McDavid is, but he's one of the better No. 1 overall picks that have come around in a few years, and he'll break into the league next season.
It goes without saying that it would be a massive get if the Penguins logo is on the lottery ball Monday night. Imagine what a line of Lafreniere-Crosby-Guentzel could do, with the speed and hands those three have?
Getting a skilled player of Lafreniere's caliber would be huge for any cash-strapped team, too. The salary cap is going to remain a flat $81.5 million for 2020-21, and remain there until hockey-related revenue surpasses $3.3 billion for the previous season. In these times of salary cap uncertainty, good players on cheap deals are a massive asset. Entry-level deals have a maximum cap hit of $925,000 and a maximum length of three years for a player of Lafreniere's age. Lafreniere will surely sign for the maximum amount, which is still a very, very team-friendly deal.
To continue reading, log into your account:
